League Cup predictions
England · cup
Calibrated probabilities for every League Cup match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League Cup in the Bet Finder.
This week's League Cup fixtures
- 27 Oct · 19:45Round of 16BradfordvPeterboroughOver 2.5Moderate
- 27 Oct · 20:00Round of 16Fleetwood TownvArsenalAway or DrawStrong
- 28 Oct · 19:30Round of 16Manchester CityvBrightonOver 2.5Moderate
- 28 Oct · 19:45Round of 16BournemouthvAston VillaOver 2.5Moderate
- 28 Oct · 19:45Round of 16FulhamvCrystal PalaceNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45Round of 16SunderlandvBrentfordNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 20:00Round of 16LiverpoolvChelseaOver 2.5Moderate
- 29 Oct · 19:45Round of 16EvertonvNewcastleNo pick yet
No table: League Cup is a knockout cup
Each round is a single tie, so there's no league table to show. The fixtures above and the results below cover the rounds as they're played.
This season in numbers
The model's League Cup record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 60.1% | 85.7% | +25.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 81.4% | 100.0% | +18.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 12 | 56.3% | 75.0% | +18.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 12 | 78.2% | 83.3% | +5.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 19 | 63.5% | 63.2% | -0.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League Cup matches since 29 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League Cup results
- 17 Sept · 19:30Round of 32Manchester City5-0NorwichOver 2.5✓
- 16 Sept · 20:00Round of 32Manchester United2-3BrightonOver 2.5✓
- 16 Sept · 20:00Round of 32Coventry1-3Aston VillaNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:45Round of 32Fleetwood Town1-0Sheffield UtdNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:45Round of 32Everton1-0WolvesNo pick
- 15 Sept · 20:00Round of 32Reading1-2BrentfordOver 2.5✓
- 15 Sept · 20:00Round of 32Liverpool3-1TottenhamOver 2.5✓
- 15 Sept · 20:00Round of 32Ipswich2-4ArsenalAway or Draw✓
- 15 Sept · 19:45Round of 32West Ham2-3FulhamOver 2.5✓
- 15 Sept · 19:30Round of 32Peterborough3-3BarnsleyNo pick
About League Cup
League Cup is a knockout cup in England, so there is no league table: each round is a single tie. The 2026/27 edition has produced 3.09 goals per game over 76 matches (90-minute scores, extra time left out): both teams scored in 55%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 17% drawn.
How the model handles League Cup
League Cup ties are scored by a cup model, trained on cup football and separate from the league model: it adds the gap between the two sides' divisions to the usual form, Elo and rest-day inputs. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 29 Jul, the model has settled 56 League Cup tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.6% on average and landing 76.8%. Its best-calibrated League Cup market so far is over 2.5 (63.5% claimed against 63.2% hit over 19 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League Cup predictions made?
- Each tie gets probabilities from two models trained on cup football: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for over/under goals and both teams to score. Inputs are recent form, Elo ratings, rest days, the gap between the two sides' divisions and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. The goals probabilities pass through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Do League Cup predictions include extra time and penalties?
- No. The model predicts the 90-minute result, the way bookmakers settle the match-result and goals markets, and the season figures on this page use 90-minute scores too.
- Which League Cup market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League Cup tips since 29 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.5% claimed against 63.2% hit over 19 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League Cup fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter League Cup by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.