League Two predictions
England · fourth tier · 24 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every League Two match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League Two in the Bet Finder.
This week's League Two fixtures
- 12 Sept · 12:30Crawley TownvCheltenhamNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 12:30GrimsbyvBristol RoversNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00BarnetvAccrington STHome or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 15:00ColchestervCreweDrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 15:00GillinghamvTranmereNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Newport CountyvFleetwood TownNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00OldhamvChesterfieldNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Port ValevExeter CityNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00RotherhamvSalford CityNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00ShrewsburyvNorthamptonNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00WalsallvRochdaleNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00YorkvSwindon TownNo pick yet
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bristol Rovers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Swindon Town | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 3 |  Barnet | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Tranmere | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Walsall | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | |
| 6 |  Fleetwood Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Crewe | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Cheltenham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 | |
| 9 |  York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Oldham | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Grimsby | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Colchester | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Gillingham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Northampton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 15 |  Salford City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | |
| 16 |  Exeter City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | |
| 17 |  Chesterfield | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Rotherham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 | |
| 19 |  Accrington ST | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 | |
| 20 |  Newport County | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | |
| 21 |  Crawley Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | |
| 22 |  Rochdale | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | |
| 23 |  Shrewsbury | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 | |
| 24 |  Port Vale | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
- Promotion - League One
- Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Relegation - National League
Official League Two table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's League Two record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 67.7% | 0.0% | -67.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.8% | 60.0% | -22.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.6% | 100.0% | +47.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.6% | 100.0% | +23.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 58.8% | 50.0% | -8.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League Two matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League Two results
- 5 Sept · 15:00Tranmere2-0OldhamNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Swindon Town3-1ColchesterNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Rochdale1-4GillinghamHome or Draw✗
- 5 Sept · 15:00Northampton1-0Newport CountyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Exeter City0-0WalsallNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Crewe1-1YorkNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Chesterfield3-3BarnetOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Cheltenham2-2GrimsbyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Bristol Rovers1-0RotherhamNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Accrington ST3-2Crawley TownNo pick
About League Two
League Two is the fourth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.67 goals per game over 60 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 37% drawn. Bristol Rovers lead the table on 12 points from 5 games.
How the model handles League Two
Every League Two fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 13 League Two tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.3% on average and landing 53.8%. Its best-calibrated League Two market so far is home or draw (82.8% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League Two predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League Two table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League Two market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League Two tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.8% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League Two fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League Two by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.