Non League Premier - Northern predictions
England · 12th tier · 22 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Non League Premier - Northern match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Non League Premier - Northern in the Bet Finder.
This week's Non League Premier - Northern fixtures
- 27 Oct · 19:45Gainsborough TrinityvCurzon AshtonNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 19:45BuryvLeek TownNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 19:45United of ManchestervQuornNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Alfreton TownvAFC EmleyNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Ashton UnitedvRylandsNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00BuryvWorkingtonNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Cleethorpes TownvAvroNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Curzon AshtonvLeek TownNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00United of ManchestervLancaster CityNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Gainsborough TrinityvBamber BridgeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Ilkeston TownvHyde UnitedNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Redcar AthleticvGuiseley AFCNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00QuornvWarrington TownNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Whitby TownvStockton TownNo pick yet
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 13 | +20 | 34 | |
| 2 |  Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 9 | +22 | 30 | |
| 3 |  Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 28 | |
| 4 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 28 | |
| 5 |  Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 28 | |
| 6 |  Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 24 | |
| 7 |  Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 | |
| 8 |  Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 | |
| 9 |  Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 22 | |
| 10 |  Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 20 | |
| 11 |  Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 19 | |
| 13 |  Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 19 | |
| 14 |  AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 | |
| 15 |  Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 15 | |
| 16 |  Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 14 | |
| 17 |  Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 | |
| 18 |  Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 14 | |
| 19 |  Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 | |
| 20 |  United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 10 | |
| 21 |  Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 10 | |
| 22 |  Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 34 | -24 | 10 |
Official Non League Premier - Northern table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Non League Premier - Northern record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 62.7% | 100.0% | +37.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 80.6% | 100.0% | +19.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 30 | 59.6% | 66.7% | +7.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 62.9% | 75.0% | +12.1 |
Settled Non League Premier - Northern matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Non League Premier - Northern results
- 24 Oct · 15:00AFC Emley1-0Lancaster CityNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00United of Manchester4-2Whitby TownOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Warrington Town1-2Gainsborough TrinityNo pick
- 21 Oct · 19:45Avro3-2Ashton UnitedNo pick
- 20 Oct · 19:45Guiseley AFC2-1Cleethorpes TownNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Whitby Town1-0Curzon AshtonNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Stockton Town1-3AFC EmleyNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Lancaster City1-2Leek TownNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Ilkeston Town2-0AvroOver 2.5✗
- 17 Oct · 15:00Gainsborough Trinity4-0Hyde UnitedOver 2.5✓
About Non League Premier - Northern
Non League Premier - Northern is the 12th tier of England football with 22 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.26 goals per game over 155 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 65% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 20% drawn. Redcar Athletic lead the table on 34 points from 15 games.
How the model handles Non League Premier - Northern
Every Non League Premier - Northern fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 36 Non League Premier - Northern tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 60.6% on average and landing 69.5%. Its best-calibrated Non League Premier - Northern market so far is over 2.5 (59.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 30 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Non League Premier - Northern predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Non League Premier - Northern table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Non League Premier - Northern market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Non League Premier - Northern tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 30 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Non League Premier - Northern fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Non League Premier - Northern by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.