Non League Premier - Northern predictions
England · 12th tier · 22 teams · table updated 2 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Non League Premier - Northern match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Non League Premier - Northern in the Bet Finder.
This week's Non League Premier - Northern fixtures
- 12 Sept · 15:00Ashton UnitedvCleethorpes TownNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Bamber BridgevAlfreton TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00BuryvAFC EmleyNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00United of ManchestervWarrington TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Gainsborough TrinityvAvroNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Guiseley AFCvQuornNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Hyde UnitedvWhitby TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Lancaster CityvCurzon AshtonNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Redcar AthleticvLeek TownNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00RylandsvStockton TownNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00WorkingtonvIlkeston TownOver 2.5Moderate
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Avro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Redcar Athletic | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Warrington Town | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Guiseley AFC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 16 | |
| 6 |  Bury | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Curzon Ashton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Workington | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 | |
| 10 |  Alfreton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Rylands | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 | |
| 12 |  Ashton United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Hyde United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 | |
| 14 |  AFC Emley | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Lancaster City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Whitby Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 9 | |
| 17 |  Ilkeston Town | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 7 | |
| 18 |  Leek Town | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | |
| 19 |  Quorn | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 | |
| 20 |  Bamber Bridge | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 | |
| 21 |  Stockton Town | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 | |
| 22 |  United of Manchester | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 2 |
Official Non League Premier - Northern table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Non League Premier - Northern record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 59.8% | 66.7% | +6.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Non League Premier - Northern matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Non League Premier - Northern results
- 1 Sept · 19:45Leek Town1-2Warrington TownNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Whitby Town1-4Alfreton TownNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Rylands3-1Bamber BridgeNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Stockton Town0-2Redcar AthleticNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Lancaster City0-3WorkingtonNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Ilkeston Town0-2QuornOver 2.5✗
- 31 Aug · 15:00Hyde United2-1BuryNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00Gainsborough Trinity0-3Cleethorpes TownNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00United of Manchester3-4AvroNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:00AFC Emley0-4Guiseley AFCNo pick
About Non League Premier - Northern
Non League Premier - Northern is the 12th tier of England football with 22 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.27 goals per game over 88 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 65% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 19% drawn. Cleethorpes Town lead the table on 19 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Non League Premier - Northern
Every Non League Premier - Northern fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 12 Non League Premier - Northern tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 59.8% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated Non League Premier - Northern market so far is over 2.5 (59.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Non League Premier - Northern predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Non League Premier - Northern table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Non League Premier - Northern market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Non League Premier - Northern tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Non League Premier - Northern fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Non League Premier - Northern by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.