One slip, daily · Last 30 days

The track record.

Every Long Shot Merchants slip of the day from the last 30 days. Every prediction, every result, every market we publish — backed by calibrated probabilities, not vibes.

Slips
31
1 pending
Won / Lost
11 / 19
Win rate
36.7%
of resulted slips
Return
-3.68u
1u per slip
Avg combined odds
2.62
Current streak
W1
winning
Longest win streak
W2
Longest losing run
L5

Cumulative return (1u per slip)-2.68u

0+0.5-4.52026-08-122026-09-10
Cumulative return chart for slip-of-the-day predictions over the last 30 days, assuming 1 unit per slip. Currently down 2.68 units.

Slip history

DateSelectionsCombined oddsSelections correctStatus
2026-09-1032.440/3Pending
2026-09-0932.413/3Won
2026-09-0832.911/3Lost
2026-09-0732.911/3Lost
2026-09-0632.643/3Won
2026-09-0532.301/3Lost
2026-09-0432.642/3Lost
2026-09-0332.472/3Lost
2026-09-0232.533/3Won
2026-09-0132.672/3Lost
2026-08-3132.520/3Lost
2026-08-3032.553/3Won
2026-08-2932.661/3Lost
2026-08-2832.503/3Won
2026-08-2741.984/4Won
2026-08-2632.592/3Lost
2026-08-2532.513/3Won
2026-08-2432.652/3Lost
2026-08-2342.131/3Lost · partial
2026-08-2242.254/4Won
2026-08-2132.443/3Won
2026-08-2041.973/4Lost
2026-08-1932.311/3Lost
2026-08-1834.541/3Lost
2026-08-1733.062/3Lost
2026-08-1633.261/3Lost
2026-08-1532.193/3Won
2026-08-1433.112/3Lost
2026-08-1332.323/3Won
2026-08-1232.992/3Lost
2026-08-1132.492/3Lost

Per-market track record (last 90 days)

BTTSn=729
62.6%model said 60.8%
+1.8pp vs model
Home Winn=855
65.4%model said 64.7%
+0.7pp vs model
Home or Drawn=1021
83.6%model said 83.8%
-0.2pp vs model
Away Winn=278
65.1%model said 58.6%
+6.5pp vs model
Away or Drawn=268
84.0%model said 79.5%
+4.5pp vs model
Over 2.5n=119
68.1%model said 73.8%
-5.7pp vs model

Hit rate = % of fixtures published above the threshold that landed. Model said = average predicted probability across those fixtures. A small gap between the two means the calibration is honest.

Track records reflect resulted matches only — pending predictions are excluded from win rate and return but counted in the slip total. See the methodology page for how probabilities are calibrated.