One slip, daily · Last 30 days
The track record.
Every Long Shot Merchants slip of the day from the last 30 days. Every prediction, every result, every market we publish — backed by calibrated probabilities, not vibes.
Slips
31
1 pending
Won / Lost
11 / 19
Win rate
36.7%
of resulted slips
Return
-3.68u
1u per slip
Avg combined odds
2.62
Current streak
W1
winning
Longest win streak
W2
Longest losing run
L5
Cumulative return (1u per slip)-2.68u
Slip history
| Date | Selections | Combined odds | Selections correct | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 3 | 2.44 | 0/3 | Pending | |
| 2026-09-09 | 3 | 2.41 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-09-08 | 3 | 2.91 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-07 | 3 | 2.91 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-06 | 3 | 2.64 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-09-05 | 3 | 2.30 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-04 | 3 | 2.64 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-03 | 3 | 2.47 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-02 | 3 | 2.53 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-09-01 | 3 | 2.67 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-31 | 3 | 2.52 | 0/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-30 | 3 | 2.55 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-29 | 3 | 2.66 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-28 | 3 | 2.50 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-27 | 4 | 1.98 | 4/4 | Won | |
| 2026-08-26 | 3 | 2.59 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-25 | 3 | 2.51 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-24 | 3 | 2.65 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-23 | 4 | 2.13 | 1/3 | Lost · partial | |
| 2026-08-22 | 4 | 2.25 | 4/4 | Won | |
| 2026-08-21 | 3 | 2.44 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-20 | 4 | 1.97 | 3/4 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-19 | 3 | 2.31 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-18 | 3 | 4.54 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-17 | 3 | 3.06 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-16 | 3 | 3.26 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-15 | 3 | 2.19 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-14 | 3 | 3.11 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-13 | 3 | 2.32 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-08-12 | 3 | 2.99 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-08-11 | 3 | 2.49 | 2/3 | Lost |
Per-market track record (last 90 days)
BTTSn=729
62.6%model said 60.8%
+1.8pp vs model
Home Winn=855
65.4%model said 64.7%
+0.7pp vs model
Home or Drawn=1021
83.6%model said 83.8%
-0.2pp vs model
Away Winn=278
65.1%model said 58.6%
+6.5pp vs model
Away or Drawn=268
84.0%model said 79.5%
+4.5pp vs model
Over 2.5n=119
68.1%model said 73.8%
-5.7pp vs model
Hit rate = % of fixtures published above the threshold that landed. Model said = average predicted probability across those fixtures. A small gap between the two means the calibration is honest.
Track records reflect resulted matches only — pending predictions are excluded from win rate and return but counted in the slip total. See the methodology page for how probabilities are calibrated.