One slip, daily · Last 30 days
The track record.
Every Long Shot Merchants slip of the day from the last 30 days. Every prediction, every result, every market we publish — backed by calibrated probabilities, not vibes.
Slips
31
1 pending
Won / Lost
11 / 19
Win rate
36.7%
of resulted slips
Return
-7.60u
1u per slip
Avg combined odds
2.28
Current streak
W1
winning
Longest win streak
W2
Longest losing run
L7
Cumulative return (1u per slip)-6.60u
Slip history
| Date | Selections | Combined odds | Selections correct | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 3 | 2.45 | 2/3 | Pending | |
| 2026-10-24 | 3 | 2.45 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-10-23 | 3 | 2.55 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-22 | 1 | 1.28 | 1/1 | Won | |
| 2026-10-21 | 3 | 2.40 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-20 | 4 | 2.42 | 4/4 | Won | |
| 2026-10-19 | 4 | 1.66 | 2/4 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-18 | 3 | 2.40 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-10-17 | 3 | 2.40 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-16 | 4 | 2.11 | 2/3 | Lost · partial | |
| 2026-10-15 | 3 | 1.75 | 2/2 | Won · partial | |
| 2026-10-14 | 3 | 2.40 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-13 | 4 | 1.66 | 3/3 | Won · partial | |
| 2026-10-12 | 4 | 2.02 | 4/4 | Won | |
| 2026-10-11 | 3 | 2.41 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-10 | 3 | 2.42 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-09 | 4 | 2.32 | 4/4 | Won | |
| 2026-10-08 | 2 | 1.26 | 2/2 | Won | |
| 2026-10-07 | 3 | 2.52 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-06 | 3 | 2.60 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-05 | 3 | 2.42 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-04 | 3 | 2.41 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-10-03 | 3 | 2.70 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-02 | 3 | 2.43 | 0/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-10-01 | 3 | 2.51 | 1/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-30 | 3 | 2.45 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 | 2.45 | 0/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-28 | 3 | 2.43 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-27 | 3 | 2.42 | 2/3 | Lost | |
| 2026-09-26 | 3 | 2.42 | 3/3 | Won | |
| 2026-09-25 | 3 | 2.60 | 2/3 | Lost |
Per-market track record (last 90 days)
BTTSn=1398
61.7%model said 60.8%
+0.9pp vs model
Home Winn=1328
66.2%model said 65.1%
+1.1pp vs model
Home or Drawn=1590
84.3%model said 84.0%
+0.3pp vs model
Away Winn=452
65.7%model said 59.3%
+6.4pp vs model
Away or Drawn=442
86.0%model said 80.0%
+6.0pp vs model
Over 2.5n=150
67.3%model said 74.4%
-7.1pp vs model
Hit rate = % of fixtures published above the threshold that landed. Model said = average predicted probability across those fixtures. A small gap between the two means the calibration is honest.
Track records reflect resulted matches only — pending predictions are excluded from win rate and return but counted in the slip total. See the methodology page for how probabilities are calibrated.