How are these Championship predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Championship table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Championship tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 64.0% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page.

Championship predictions

England · second tier · 24 teams · table updated 30 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.

This week's Championship fixtures

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	6	3	3	20	16	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	+12	20(-4)
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	6	2	4	18	16	+2	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	+2	19
11	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	+3	18
12	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	+1	18
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	-1	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	-3	15
15	Lincoln	12	4	3	5	13	20	-7	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	+2	14
17	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	-4	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	-7	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	-7	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	-2	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	-10	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	-8	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	-11	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	-15	5

Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One

Official Championship table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Southampton · updated 2026-10-30.

This season in numbers

2.93

goals per game (156 matches)

62%

both teams scored

62%

over 2.5 goals

77%

over 1.5 goals

39%

over 3.5 goals

42%

home wins

26%

draws

31%

away wins

The model's Championship record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	11	63.7%	54.5%	-9.2
Home or draw≥ 80%	11	83.4%	72.7%	-10.7
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	5	64.0%	60.0%	-4.0
BTTS≥ 63%	9	63.2%	55.6%	-7.6

Settled Championship matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Championship results

About Championship

Championship is the second tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.93 goals per game over 156 matches: both teams scored in 62%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 26% drawn. Middlesbrough lead the table on 25 points from 12 games. Southampton (-4) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.

How the model handles Championship

Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 36 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.6% on average and landing 61.1%. Its best-calibrated Championship market so far is over 2.5 (64.0% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Championship predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Championship table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Championship tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 64.0% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.