Championship predictions
England · second tier · 24 teams · table updated 14 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's Championship fixtures
- 18 Sept · 20:00Bristol CityvWatfordNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 12:30CardiffvCharltonNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 12:30MillwallvWest HamNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 12:30Stoke CityvSheffield UtdNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00BirminghamvMiddlesbroughNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00BurnleyvDerbyNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00LincolnvSwanseaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00PortsmouthvBlackburnNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00QPRvPrestonNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 15:00WrexhamvSouthamptonNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 12:00WolvesvWest BromNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 13:30NorwichvBoltonNo pick yet
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 | |
| 3 |  West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |  QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10(-4) | |
| 9 |  Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | |
| 15 |  Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 | |
| 17 |  Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | |
| 20 |  Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | |
| 22 |  Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | |
| 23 |  Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | |
| 24 |  Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
- Promotion - Premier League
- Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Relegation - League One
Official Championship table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Southampton · updated 2026-09-14.
This season in numbers
The model's Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 63.0% | 25.0% | -38.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 82.6% | 75.0% | -7.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 2 | 65.3% | 0.0% | -65.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Championship results
- 15 Sept · 19:45Middlesbrough2-2MillwallNo pick
- 15 Sept · 19:45Bristol City0-1LincolnNo pick
- 13 Sept · 12:00Sheffield Utd0-1WolvesNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Watford1-2Stoke CityNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Swansea3-1BurnleyNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Southampton4-1Bristol CityNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Preston0-1LincolnNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Middlesbrough4-3NorwichNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Charlton0-0PortsmouthNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Blackburn3-1MillwallNo pick
About Championship
Championship is the second tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.86 goals per game over 83 matches: both teams scored in 66%, 63% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 29% drawn. West Ham lead the table on 14 points from 7 games. Southampton (-4) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles Championship
Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 10 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.3% on average and landing 40.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Championship tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.