Long Shot Merchants

Today & tomorrow

Bet finder.

Every prediction we hold for the next two days, searchable. Pick a market, set a minimum probability, and build an accumulator from whatever comes back.

Filter15 fixtures
Track record

Home win predictions we've shown at 60%+ landed 69.7% of the time over the last 90 days — the model predicted 66.5% across those 729 finished matches.

Every probability here is published before kick-off and scored against the final result. The figure above counts every fixture that cleared the threshold — nothing is picked out afterwards. The home side wins in 90 minutes.

13 more fixtures match this filter

A free account unlocks every matching fixture, the exact probability on each one, the bookmaker price, and the acca builder.

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Find football bets by probability, not by tipster

Most prediction sites hand you a list and ask you to trust it. This one works the other way round: you ask the question, and every fixture that answers it comes back. Pick a market, set the confidence floor you're comfortable with, narrow it to the leagues you actually watch, and the tool searches every prediction we hold for today and tomorrow.

That makes it broader than our daily slate on purpose. The slate is a capped, curated list; this searches everything behind it — the near-misses, the lower-confidence fixtures, and the competitions that rarely make a headline list.

How the probabilities are produced

Nothing on this page is an opinion. Match-result probabilities come from a multinomial classifier that outputs home, draw and away as one distribution; the goals and both-teams-to-score markets come from a pair of Poisson goal models with a Dixon-Coles correction for the low-scoring scorelines where goals are correlated. Both draw on venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and recency-weighted shot and expected-goals data.

A final calibration step pulls each raw number toward its honest long-run frequency, so a fixture shown at 70% lands close to 70% of the time rather than being quietly overconfident. The whole pipeline is written up on the methodology page.

Building an accumulator

Tick any fixtures you like and the tray keeps a running combined probability: the product of the legs, shown as how often that accumulator lands. It's a reality check more than anything — four selections at 75% each look strong individually and come out at 32% together.

Legs from the same match can't be combined, because they're correlated and the multiplication would flatter the result. Where every leg has a stored price, the tray also shows the combined decimal odds. Your selections are kept while you change filters and are cleared when you leave the page — nothing is saved to your account.

What this tool won't do

You won't find “value” ratings, implied-probability comparisons or any flag telling you our number beats the bookmaker's. We built that feature once and retired it: selecting bets by the size of the gap between our probability and the market's price mostly selects our own error, and a review of three months of results showed returns getting worse the larger the supposed edge. The price is shown because it's useful information. Judging it is your call, not ours.

Frequently asked questions

What is the bet finder?
It's a search tool over every football prediction we've published for today and tomorrow. You choose the market — home win, draw, away win, both teams to score, or over 1.5/2.5/3.5 goals — set a minimum probability, and optionally narrow it to the competitions you follow. The tool returns every upcoming fixture that clears your threshold, sorted by probability or by kick-off time.
How is this different from your daily predictions page?
The predictions page shows a curated slate: a capped list of the fixtures our thresholds selected on the day. The bet finder is deliberately broader — it searches every prediction we hold for the next two days, including the ones that didn't make the slate. Selections that are on the slate carry an “Our pick” badge when you're signed in.
How is the combined accumulator probability worked out?
It's the product of the individual leg probabilities. Two selections at 70% and 60% give 0.70 × 0.60 = 42%, so that accumulator lands roughly 42% of the time. Multiplying like this assumes the matches are independent of each other, which is why two selections from the same match can't be combined — a team's win and its goals are correlated, and multiplying them would overstate the accumulator's chances.
Why can't I add two selections from the same match?
Because the maths would lie to you. Legs from the same fixture aren't independent: if a match finishes 3-0, the home win and the over 2.5 both land together, and they'd have failed together in a 0-0. Multiplying two correlated probabilities produces a number that's too low for the risk and too flattering for the price, so we block it rather than warn about it.
Why do draw probabilities look so low?
Because draws genuinely are. Across our leagues roughly a quarter of matches finish level, and the model's draw probability rarely exceeds 40% even for the tightest fixtures. The filter for draws therefore runs on a lower scale than the other markets. The colour of each disc is still on the same absolute scale as everywhere else on the site, so a 34% draw looks like what it is — a possibility, not a favourite.
Where do the odds come from?
They're Bet365 prices pulled from our odds feed through the day, shown as decimals. Not every market has a price: draws and over 3.5 goals aren't stored in the feed, so those selections show no price, and an accumulator containing one won't show a combined price either. We show our probability and we show the price. We don't tell you which is right.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Each market is calibrated so that fixtures shown at, say, 70% land close to 70% of the time. The strip at the top of the results reports the real hit rate for the market and threshold you've selected over the last 90 days, next to what the model predicted across the same matches — the closer those two numbers, the better calibrated it is. The full per-market breakdown is on the track record page.
Do I need an account?
You can browse the filters, see which fixtures qualify and read the track record without one. A free account reveals the exact probability on every fixture, the bookmaker price, the full result list rather than the first few, and the accumulator builder.