Long shot of the day.
Four longer-priced picks from different matches, stacked into one punt — posted only on days with a big enough card. A proper shot at a big return: it won't land often, but when it does it's a good day. Win or lose, every one is tracked here.
Previous long shots
What is the Long Shot of the Day?
The Long Shot of the Day is a four-pick accumulator at a big combined price — usually around 10/1 and up — built from the same calibrated model behind our daily predictions. It's the fun, high-variance sibling of the Slip of the Day: a proper shot at a large return that won't come in often, but makes for a good day when it does.
How it's built
We build the Slip of the Day first, then the long-shot takes four of the longest-priced qualifying picks from other matches — one per match, never sharing a fixture with the slip. Every leg has to be a genuine model pick, and any where the bookmaker is materially more pessimistic than the model is dropped, so the four are the model's real outsiders rather than random long prices. Once it's published its odds are frozen, so the price you see is the price it was struck at.
It's only posted on days with a busy enough card — typically weekends and big midweek nights — because that's when there are enough strong outsiders in different matches to build one worth backing.
A bit of fun, not a money-maker
We're straight about this: a four-leg accumulator pays the bookmaker's margin on every leg, so over time it isn't a profitable bet. It lands roughly one time in six to eight — a long shot by design. The point is the buzz of a big-odds punt with the occasional memorable winner, and an honest public record either way. For the model's most sensible daily pick, use the Slip of the Day instead.
Responsible use
A long shot is exactly that — most of them lose, and that's the bet working as intended. Never stake more than you're happy to lose on it, and don't chase. Please gamble responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Long Shot of the Day?
- A four-pick accumulator built from the model's daily shortlist, at a chunky combined price (usually around 10/1 and up). It's posted only on days with a busy enough fixture card, so it doesn't run every day — it's a bit of fun with a big potential return, not a daily banker.
- How often does it come in?
- Roughly one in every six to eight — it's a long shot by design, so most of them lose. The appeal is the occasional big winner, not a steady return. Every one is published win or lose so the record is honest.
- Is this a way to make money?
- No, and we won't pretend otherwise. A four-leg accumulator pays the bookmaker's margin on every leg, so over time it is not a profitable bet — it's for the fun of a big-odds punt on a loaded Saturday (or a busy midweek). If you want the model's most sensible daily pick instead, that's the Slip of the Day.
- How are the four picks chosen?
- They come from the same calibrated model as the daily predictions. We build the Slip of the Day first, then the long-shot takes four of the longest-priced qualifying picks from other matches — never sharing a fixture with the slip, one pick per match. Picks where the bookmaker is much more pessimistic than the model are dropped, so the legs are the model's genuine outsiders rather than reckless punts.
- Why isn't there one every day?
- A good long-shot needs a busy card so there are enough strong outsiders in different matches to build one. On quiet days there simply aren't four qualifying picks, so we don't force it — no long-shot is posted. That's why they cluster on weekends and big midweek nights.
- Can I see past long-shots and how they did?
- Yes. Every day one was posted has its own page showing the four picks, the combined odds and whether it landed, and the rolling win/loss record is shown right on this page. Nothing is hidden — the losers stay up alongside the winners.