How are these National League - South predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the National League - South table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?

On settled National League - South tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.8% claimed against 55.3% hit over 38 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

National League - South predictions

England · ninth tier · 24 teams · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every National League - South match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National League - South in the Bet Finder.

This week's National League - South fixtures

National League - South table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	+9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	+20	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	+10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	7	2	4	12	9	+3	23
5	Salisbury	12	6	4	2	21	9	+12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	+11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	+10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	+8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	6	2	4	23	16	+7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	+6	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	+1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	+3	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	0	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	+3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	2	9	0	17	11	+6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	3	5	5	11	14	-3	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	-9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	3	4	6	13	18	-5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	-12	13
20	Chesham United	12	3	1	8	16	26	-10	10
21	Braintree	12	3	1	8	18	33	-15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	-16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	-18	8
24	Slough Town	13	1	1	11	13	34	-21	4

Promotion - National League
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation

Official National League - South table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

2.91

goals per game (147 matches)

52%

both teams scored

50%

over 2.5 goals

79%

over 1.5 goals

33%

over 3.5 goals

37%

home wins

27%

draws

37%

away wins

The model's National League - South record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	15	61.8%	53.3%	-8.5
Home or draw≥ 80%	14	82.7%	64.3%	-18.4
Away win≥ 50%	4	52.0%	50.0%	-2.0
Away or draw≥ 73%	4	76.3%	75.0%	-1.3
Over 2.5≥ 57%	38	61.8%	55.3%	-6.5
BTTS≥ 63%	5	64.6%	40.0%	-24.6

Settled National League - South matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent National League - South results

About National League - South

National League - South is the ninth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.91 goals per game over 147 matches: both teams scored in 52%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 37% with 27% drawn. Maidstone Utd lead the table on 26 points from 13 games.

How the model handles National League - South

Every National League - South fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 80 National League - South tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.9% on average and landing 56.3%. Its best-calibrated National League - South market so far is over 2.5 (61.8% claimed against 55.3% hit over 38 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these National League - South predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the National League - South table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?: On settled National League - South tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.8% claimed against 55.3% hit over 38 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National League - South by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.