How are these National League - South predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the National League - South table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?

On settled National League - South tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.3% claimed against 59.1% hit over 22 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

National League - South predictions

England · ninth tier · 24 teams · table updated 9 Sept

Calibrated probabilities for every National League - South match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National League - South in the Bet Finder.

This week's National League - South fixtures

National League - South table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	+9	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	8	5	1	2	9	6	+3	16
3	Weston-super-Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	+8	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	+9	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	+8	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	+7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	+5	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	+2	12
9	Salisbury	7	3	2	2	14	6	+8	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	+3	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	-2	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	+2	10
13	Farnham Town	7	3	1	3	9	9	0	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	-4	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	-4	10
16	Chelmsford City	7	1	6	0	8	7	+1	9
17	Hemel Hempstead Town	8	2	3	3	7	9	-2	9
18	Maidenhead	8	2	3	3	6	9	-3	9
19	Chesham United	8	2	1	5	12	14	-2	7
20	Braintree	6	2	1	3	9	14	-5	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	-12	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	+2	4
23	Slough Town	7	0	0	7	8	21	-13	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	-20	0

Promotion - National League
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation

Official National League - South table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.

This season in numbers

2.85

goals per game (86 matches)

49%

both teams scored

48%

over 2.5 goals

78%

over 1.5 goals

30%

over 3.5 goals

36%

home wins

26%

draws

38%

away wins

The model's National League - South record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	7	63.3%	42.9%	-20.4
Home or draw≥ 80%	6	84.0%	66.7%	-17.3
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	22	61.3%	59.1%	-2.2
BTTS≥ 63%	2	64.6%	50.0%	-14.6

Settled National League - South matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent National League - South results

About National League - South

National League - South is the ninth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.85 goals per game over 86 matches: both teams scored in 49%, 48% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 36% with 26% drawn. Maidstone Utd lead the table on 19 points from 8 games.

How the model handles National League - South

Every National League - South fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 37 National League - South tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.5% on average and landing 56.8%. Its best-calibrated National League - South market so far is over 2.5 (61.3% claimed against 59.1% hit over 22 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these National League - South predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the National League - South table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?: On settled National League - South tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.3% claimed against 59.1% hit over 22 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National League - South by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.