Premier League predictions
England · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 12 Sept · 15:00Aston VillavNottingham ForestNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00BournemouthvBrentfordNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00ChelseavHull CityNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Crystal PalacevIpswichNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00LiverpoolvFulhamOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 17:30TottenhamvEvertonHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 20:00SunderlandvArsenalAway or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 14:00CoventryvBrightonNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:30Manchester UnitedvManchester CityOver 2.5Moderate
- 14 Sept · 20:00LeedsvNewcastleNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 | |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 | |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 | |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 | |
| 7 |  Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 | |
| 8 |  Everton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Brighton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 | |
| 12 |  Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | |
| 17 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
- Relegation - Championship
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 70.3% | 100.0% | +29.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 85.3% | 100.0% | +14.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 59.1% | 100.0% | +40.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 80.6% | 100.0% | +19.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 64.6% | 71.4% | +6.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 6 Sept · 16:30Arsenal2-1ChelseaOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 14:00Everton2-2Manchester UnitedNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:30Hull City0-0Aston VillaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Nottingham Forest0-0TottenhamNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Manchester City1-0CoventryHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Fulham2-3Crystal PalaceNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Brighton1-1LeedsNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Brentford1-1SunderlandNo pick
- 5 Sept · 12:30Newcastle2-2BournemouthNo pick
- 4 Sept · 20:00Ipswich0-2LiverpoolOver 2.5✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of England football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.83 goals per game over 30 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 33% drawn. Manchester City lead the table on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 17 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.4% on average and landing 88.2%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is over 2.5 (64.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 64.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.