Premier League predictions
England · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 31 Oct · 12:30ChelseavManchester UnitedNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00BournemouthvLeedsNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00BrentfordvNottingham ForestNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00CoventryvSunderlandNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Hull CityvIpswichNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Manchester CityvBrightonNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:30TottenhamvCrystal PalaceNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 20:00Aston VillavFulhamNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:30LiverpoolvArsenalNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 21 | |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
- Relegation - Championship
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 71.0% | 88.9% | +17.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 54.1% | 75.0% | +20.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 76.7% | 75.0% | -1.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 18 | 63.0% | 61.1% | -1.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 25 Oct · 16:30Sunderland0-0LeedsNo pick
- 25 Oct · 14:00Manchester United0-3BournemouthNo pick
- 25 Oct · 14:00Liverpool2-0BrightonOver 2.5✗
- 25 Oct · 14:00Hull City1-1BrentfordNo pick
- 25 Oct · 14:00Crystal Palace0-2NewcastleNo pick
- 24 Oct · 17:30Chelsea0-2TottenhamOver 2.5✗
- 24 Oct · 15:00Coventry0-1FulhamNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Arsenal2-0EvertonHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 12:30Aston Villa2-1Manchester CityNo pick
- 23 Oct · 20:00Ipswich1-1Nottingham ForestNo pick
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of England football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.78 goals per game over 80 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 39% with 29% drawn. Manchester City lead the table on 21 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 45 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.0% on average and landing 77.8%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is over 2.5 (63.0% claimed against 61.1% hit over 18 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.0% claimed against 61.1% hit over 18 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.