How are these National League predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the National League table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which National League market is the model most reliable in?

On settled National League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are National League fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

National League predictions

England · fifth tier · 24 teams · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every National League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National League in the Bet Finder.

This week's National League fixtures

National League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	+14	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	7	4	3	33	17	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	6	3	5	24	17	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	-5	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	5	5	4	16	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	5	3	6	18	17	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	-4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	-6	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	-3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	-6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	-6	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	-9	14
21	Boston United	14	3	3	8	17	27	-10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	-7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	-23	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	-23	4

Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation

Official National League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

3.13

goals per game (165 matches)

64%

both teams scored

62%

over 2.5 goals

82%

over 1.5 goals

39%

over 3.5 goals

46%

home wins

18%

draws

37%

away wins

The model's National League record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	6	62.7%	83.3%	+20.6
Home or draw≥ 80%	10	82.5%	80.0%	-2.5
Away win≥ 50%	6	54.2%	66.7%	+12.5
Away or draw≥ 73%	6	77.6%	83.3%	+5.7
Over 2.5≥ 57%	20	61.0%	75.0%	+14.0
BTTS≥ 63%	6	64.5%	33.3%	-31.2

Settled National League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent National League results

About National League

National League is the fifth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.13 goals per game over 165 matches: both teams scored in 64%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 18% drawn. Boreham Wood lead the table on 38 points from 14 games.

How the model handles National League

Every National League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 54 National League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.6% on average and landing 72.2%. Its best-calibrated National League market so far is home or draw (82.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these National League predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the National League table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which National League market is the model most reliable in?: On settled National League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are National League fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.