How are these League One predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the League One table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which League One market is the model most reliable in?

On settled League One tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 60.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

League One predictions

England · third tier · 24 teams · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.

This week's League One fixtures

League One table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	24	11	+13	25
2	Stockport County	12	7	2	3	24	12	+12	23
3	Bradford	12	6	4	2	10	5	+5	22
4	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	21	19	+2	22
5	Reading	12	6	3	3	25	13	+12	21
6	Cambridge United	12	5	5	2	20	17	+3	20
7	Oxford United	10	5	4	1	18	10	+8	19
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	5	3	3	20	12	+8	18
9	Mansfield Town	11	5	3	3	20	16	+4	18
10	Luton	11	5	2	4	21	19	+2	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	18	19	-1	17
12	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	15	11	+4	15
13	Leicester	11	4	3	4	17	17	0	15
14	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	19	23	-4	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	16	14	+2	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	8	19	-11	13
17	Doncaster	11	3	3	5	12	13	-1	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	2	6	3	12	18	-6	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	11	14	-3	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	-4	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	11	21	-10	10
22	Bromley	11	2	3	6	10	26	-16	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11	21	-10	8
24	Wigan	11	2	1	8	8	17	-9	7

Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two

Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

2.80

goals per game (138 matches)

58%

both teams scored

54%

over 2.5 goals

79%

over 1.5 goals

30%

over 3.5 goals

41%

home wins

29%

draws

30%

away wins

The model's League One record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	9	60.6%	66.7%	+6.1
Home or draw≥ 80%	9	82.1%	66.7%	-15.4
Away win≥ 50%	1	51.7%	100.0%	+48.3
Away or draw≥ 73%	1	74.7%	100.0%	+25.3
Over 2.5≥ 57%	15	60.0%	46.7%	-13.3
BTTS≥ 63%	2	64.0%	0.0%	-64.0

Settled League One matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent League One results

About League One

League One is the third tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.80 goals per game over 138 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 29% drawn. Huddersfield lead the table on 25 points from 12 games.

How the model handles League One

Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 37 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.9% on average and landing 56.8%. Its best-calibrated League One market so far is home win (60.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these League One predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the League One table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which League One market is the model most reliable in?: On settled League One tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 60.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.