League One predictions
England · third tier · 24 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
- 10 Sept · 20:00StevenagevLutonNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 12:30Leyton OrientvWycombeNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 12:30Notts CountyvBradfordNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00AFC WimbledonvDoncasterNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00BlackpoolvBromleyNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Cambridge UnitedvReadingNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Mansfield TownvHuddersfieldNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Milton Keynes DonsvPeterboroughNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Oxford UnitedvBurton AlbionNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00PlymouthvBarnsleyNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Sheffield WednesdayvWiganOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Stockport CountyvLeicesterOver 2.5Moderate
- 17 Sept · 20:00AFC WimbledonvMilton Keynes DonsNo pick yet
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Huddersfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 | |
| 3 |  Stockport County | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Bradford | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Burton Albion | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 | |
| 6 |  Cambridge United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 | |
| 7 |  Luton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Reading | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Leyton Orient | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 | |
| 10 |  Oxford United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Blackpool | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Notts County | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Plymouth | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Barnsley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |  AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Mansfield Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Leicester | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | |
| 19 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 | |
| 20 |  Peterborough | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | |
| 21 |  Bromley | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 4 | |
| 22 |  Doncaster | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | |
| 23 |  Wycombe | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 | |
| 24 |  Wigan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
- Promotion - Championship
- Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
- Relegation - League Two
Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 60.6% | 50.0% | -10.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 82.1% | 33.3% | -48.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.6% | 66.7% | +6.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League One matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 7 Sept · 20:00Bromley0-2AFC WimbledonNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Wycombe3-3Milton Keynes DonsNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Reading3-1BlackpoolNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Luton1-1Leyton OrientNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Leicester0-4Oxford UnitedNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Huddersfield1-1Notts CountyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Doncaster2-3PlymouthNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Burton Albion2-2Cambridge UnitedNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Bradford1-0Mansfield TownNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Barnsley1-5StevenageNo pick
About League One
League One is the third tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.17 goals per game over 59 matches: both teams scored in 66%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 36% with 31% drawn. Sheffield Wednesday lead the table on 12 points from 5 games.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 8 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.7% on average and landing 50.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled League One tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.