FA Cup predictions
England · cup
Calibrated probabilities for every FA Cup match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter FA Cup in the Bet Finder.
This week's FA Cup fixtures
No FA Cup fixtures in the next 7 days.
No table: FA Cup is a knockout cup
Each round is a single tie, so there's no league table to show. The fixtures above and the results below cover the rounds as they're played.
This season in numbers
The model's FA Cup record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 47 | 61.4% | 53.2% | -8.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 43 | 82.3% | 72.1% | -10.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 34 | 57.9% | 32.4% | -25.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 32 | 79.8% | 71.9% | -7.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 92 | 63.9% | 62.0% | -1.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled FA Cup matches since 29 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent FA Cup results
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingYeovil Town5-2LeatherheadHome or Draw✓
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingWorcester City1-0ChorleyNo pick
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingTadley Calleva0-2Aldershot TownNo pick
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingStafford Rangers5-0GatesheadAway or Draw✗
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingHarrogate Town3-1BuryNo pick
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingGloucester City0-2BarrowDraw✗
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingForest Green5-0Chesham UnitedHome Win✓
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingUnited of Manchester2-6AltrinchamDraw✗
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingCray Wanderers2-2Bedford TownAway or Draw✓
- 20 Oct · 19:454th Round QualifyingAnstey Nomads0-3MacclesfieldOver 2.5✓
About FA Cup
FA Cup is a knockout cup in England, so there is no league table: each round is a single tie. The 2026/27 edition has produced 3.24 goals per game over 326 matches (90-minute scores, extra time left out): both teams scored in 57%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 21% drawn.
How the model handles FA Cup
FA Cup ties are scored by a cup model, trained on cup football and separate from the league model: it adds the gap between the two sides' divisions to the usual form, Elo and rest-day inputs. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 29 Jul, the model has settled 248 FA Cup tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.8% on average and landing 59.3%. Its best-calibrated FA Cup market so far is over 2.5 (63.9% claimed against 62.0% hit over 92 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these FA Cup predictions made?
- Each tie gets probabilities from two models trained on cup football: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for over/under goals and both teams to score. Inputs are recent form, Elo ratings, rest days, the gap between the two sides' divisions and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. The goals probabilities pass through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Do FA Cup predictions include extra time and penalties?
- No. The model predicts the 90-minute result, the way bookmakers settle the match-result and goals markets, and the season figures on this page use 90-minute scores too.
- Which FA Cup market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled FA Cup tips since 29 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.9% claimed against 62.0% hit over 92 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are FA Cup fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter FA Cup by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.