What do 1X and X2 mean?

1X is home or draw: it wins unless the away side wins. X2 is away or draw: it wins unless the home side wins. 12, either team to win, isn't on this page.

Why isn't every strong favourite listed?

When a side is very likely to win, its double chance price usually drops below 1.10, and those are left off. The outright win is often the better-priced pick, and that's on today's predictions page.

Why does the model have to agree with the bookmaker?

When the model's double chance probability sits well above the bookmaker's own estimate, the bookmaker has usually been the one that's right. So a pick only appears when the two are close.

How often do these land?

The record at the top of the page shows it: the share of settled picks that landed, against what the model claimed, over the last 90 days.

Double chance · Wed 28 Oct

Double chance predictions, 28 Oct

Every match where home or draw reaches 80%, or away or draw 77.5%, at a price worth having. Settled matches stay on the page with the score.

This day

picks

Last 90 days

83.6%

landed · 82.6% claimed · 1252 picks

Serie A

Brazil1 prediction

22:30UPCOMING

Fluminense

Internacional

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.18

82%

Primera División

Chile1 prediction

23:30UPCOMING

U. Catolica

A. Italiano

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.17

80%

Primera A

Colombia1 prediction

23:00UPCOMING

Once Caldas

Alianza Valledupar

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.10

81%

DFB Pokal

Germany1 prediction

19:45UPCOMING

Holstein Kiel

1899 Hoffenheim

Away or Draw (X2)

Strong@ 1.12

87%

Botola Pro

Morocco1 prediction

20:00UPCOMING

FAR Rabat

Ittihad Tanger

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.11

81%

Primera División

Venezuela2 predictions

23:30UPCOMING

Carabobo FC

Deportivo La Guaira

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.25

83%

23:30UPCOMING

Metropolitanos FC

Portuguesa FC

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.17

84%

Settled: 17 of 22 landed

Superliga

Albania1 prediction

17:30WONFT 2-1

AF Elbasani

Partizani

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.12

81%

Premier League

Egypt1 prediction

17:00WONFT 2-1

Zamalek SC

El Mokawloon

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.22

84%

DFB Pokal

Germany3 predictions

17:00WONFT 3-2

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.17

83%

17:00WONFT 0-1

SC Paderborn 07

VfB Stuttgart

Away or Draw (X2)

Solid@ 1.14

82%

17:00LOSTFT 2-0

Dynamo Dresden

FC Schalke 04

Away or Draw (X2)

Solid@ 1.30

81%

Cup

Greece2 predictions

13:00WONFT 0-2

Nestos Chrisoupolis

Kalamata

Away or Draw (X2)

Solid@ 1.10

81%

15:30WONFT 2-1

Panathinaikos

Aris Thessalonikis

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.12

85%

Coppa Italia Serie C

Italy1 prediction

17:00WONFT 2-1

Spezia

Livorno

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.12

82%

Coppa Italia Serie D

Italy1 prediction

13:30LOSTFT 0-2

Teramo

Latte Dolce

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.10

85%

Botola Pro

Morocco1 prediction

18:00WONFT 1-1

Raja Casablanca

Hassania Agadir

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.12

83%

Primera División

Peru1 prediction

18:15LOSTFT 1-3

FC Cajamarca

UTC Cajamarca

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.28

80%

Cup

Poland1 prediction

16:30WONFT 1-2

Puszcza Niepołomice

Wisla Plock

Away or Draw (X2)

Solid@ 1.22

82%

Super Liga

Slovakia1 prediction

17:00WONFT 0-2

AS Trencin

Slovan Bratislava

Away or Draw (X2)

Strong@ 1.11

85%

Allsvenskan

Sweden1 prediction

18:00WONFT 0-3

Halmstad

Malmo FF

Away or Draw (X2)

Moderate@ 1.18

78%

Premier League

Uganda2 predictions

13:00WONFT 0-0

Entebbe UPPC

Maroons

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.12

83%

13:00LOSTFT 1-0

Mbarara City

Vipers

Away or Draw (X2)

Strong@ 1.10

85%

AFC Champions League

World1 prediction

10:00WONFT 1-1

Gamba Osaka

Buriram United

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.17

86%

AFC Cup

World3 predictions

16:00WONFT 4-2

Al-Jazira

Muharraq

Home or Draw (1X)

Solid@ 1.10

88%

16:00WONFT 1-4

Al-Nahda

Al-Rayyan SC

Away or Draw (X2)

Moderate@ 1.22

78%

18:15WONFT 1-2

Khalidiya

Al Wahda FC

Away or Draw (X2)

Moderate@ 1.20

79%

UEFA Champions League Women

World2 predictions

17:45WONFT 2-2

Bayern Munich W

Real Madrid W

Home or Draw (1X)

Moderate@ 1.14

83%

17:45LOSTFT 5-1

Servette Chênois W

OH Leuven W

Away or Draw (X2)

Solid@ 1.28

82%

The last 90 days on this page's rule: 1252 settled picks, 82.6% claimed on average, 83.6% landed. The page started on 27 Oct; before that, the record replays the same rule on the predictions we stored at the time, frozen at kick-off.

What double chance means

A double chance bet covers two of the three results. Home or draw (1X) wins unless the away side wins; away or draw (X2) wins unless the home side wins. It lands more often than backing a team outright, and it is priced shorter for the same reason.

How these predictions are made

The result model gives every match a home, draw and away probability, and double chance is two of them added together. This page lists home or draw at 80% or more and away or draw at 77.5% or more, where that side is also at least an even-money chance to win outright. Each pick also needs a bookmaker price of at least 1.10, and the model can't sit more than 5points above the bookmaker's implied probability.

How to read the prices

Double chance is where the model is most often right, because it only has to avoid one result. The other side of that is the price: most of these are short, so one loss can cancel several wins. Use the probability and the price together, and stake accordingly.

Frequently asked questions

What do 1X and X2 mean?: 1X is home or draw: it wins unless the away side wins. X2 is away or draw: it wins unless the home side wins. 12, either team to win, isn't on this page.
Why isn't every strong favourite listed?: When a side is very likely to win, its double chance price usually drops below 1.10, and those are left off. The outright win is often the better-priced pick, and that's on today's predictions page.
Why does the model have to agree with the bookmaker?: When the model's double chance probability sits well above the bookmaker's own estimate, the bookmaker has usually been the one that's right. So a pick only appears when the two are close.
How often do these land?: The record at the top of the page shows it: the share of settled picks that landed, against what the model claimed, over the last 90 days.