Serie A predictions
Brazil · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie A in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie A fixtures
- 26 Oct · 22:30CoritibavGremioNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 23:00FlamengovAtletico-MGNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 22:30RB BragantinovChapecoense-scHome or DrawModerate
- 28 Oct · 22:30FluminensevInternacionalNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 22:30SantosvPalmeirasNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 0:30BahiavSao PauloNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 0:30RemovBotafogoNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 22:30Atletico-MGvCruzeiroNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 22:30CoritibavVitoriaNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 23:00Vasco DA GamavFlamengoNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 0:30GremiovAtletico ParanaenseNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 23:00CorinthiansvMirassolNo pick yet
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 69 | |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | +36 | 67 | |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | +5 | 54 | |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 54 | |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 41 | +9 | 51 | |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 50 | |
| 7 |  Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 50 | |
| 8 |  Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 46 | |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 36 | +1 | 43 | |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 41 | |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 39 | |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 39 | |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 38 | |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 38 | |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 37 | |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 35 | |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 | |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 31 | |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 26 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 21 |
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
- Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
- Relegation - Serie B
Official Serie A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie A record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 23 | 61.6% | 73.9% | +12.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 31 | 83.2% | 93.5% | +10.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.1% | 100.0% | +47.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.7% | 100.0% | +23.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie A matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie A results
- 25 Oct · 1:00Santos1-1BahiaNo pick
- 24 Oct · 23:30Chapecoense-sc2-1FluminenseNo pick
- 24 Oct · 22:30Vasco DA Gama3-2CorinthiansNo pick
- 24 Oct · 22:30Palmeiras2-0RB BragantinoHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 20:30Vitoria1-1Atletico ParanaenseNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:30Mirassol1-1Sao PauloNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:30Internacional3-0BotafogoNo pick
- 24 Oct · 0:00Cruzeiro1-0RemoHome or Draw✓
- 20 Oct · 0:00Corinthians1-1VitoriaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 23:30Remo1-1RB BragantinoNo pick
About Serie A
Serie A is the top flight of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.66 goals per game over 317 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 28% drawn. Palmeiras lead the table on 69 points from 32 games.
How the model handles Serie A
Every Serie A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 56 Serie A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.7% on average and landing 85.7%. Its best-calibrated Serie A market so far is home or draw (83.2% claimed against 93.5% hit over 31 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie A predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie A table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie A market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie A tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.2% claimed against 93.5% hit over 31 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie A fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.