Serie A predictions
Brazil · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie A in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie A fixtures
- 12 Sept · 1:00CoritibavAtletico ParanaenseNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 20:00Atletico-MGvFluminenseNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 20:00GremiovVasco DA GamaHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 21:00Chapecoense-scvInternacionalNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 22:30PalmeirasvSao PauloHome or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 0:30BotafogovRB BragantinoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 1:00SantosvCruzeiroNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 20:00MirassolvVitoriaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 21:30FlamengovCorinthiansHome or DrawModerate
- 15 Sept · 0:00BahiavRemoNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 23:30BotafogovGremioNo pick yet
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 54 | |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 45 | 21 | +24 | 53 | |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 45 | |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 45 | |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 43 | |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 42 | |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 37 | |
| 8 |  Atletico-MG | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 | |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 35 | |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 33 | |
| 11 |  Vitoria | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 32 | |
| 12 |  Corinthians | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 | |
| 13 |  Santos | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 32 | |
| 14 |  Botafogo | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 31 | |
| 15 |  Gremio | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 28 | |
| 16 |  Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | |
| 17 |  Vasco DA Gama | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 25 | |
| 18 |  Internacional | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 25 | |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 17 |
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
- Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
- Relegation - Serie B
Official Serie A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie A record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 12 | 61.0% | 58.3% | -2.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 19 | 82.8% | 89.5% | +6.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 57.3% | 100.0% | +42.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 80.0% | 100.0% | +20.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie A matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie A results
- 8 Sept · 0:00Vitoria1-0GremioNo pick
- 6 Sept · 23:30Corinthians1-2Chapecoense-scHome or Draw✗
- 6 Sept · 22:30Botafogo0-0PalmeirasNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00Remo0-1FlamengoAway or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 20:00Internacional2-3SantosNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00Cruzeiro3-1Atletico ParanaenseNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Coritiba1-2MirassolNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:00Fluminense1-0Vasco DA GamaHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 22:30Sao Paulo2-0Atletico-MGNo pick
- 5 Sept · 20:00RB Bragantino2-3BahiaNo pick
About Serie A
Serie A is the top flight of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.63 goals per game over 256 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 28% drawn. Flamengo lead the table on 54 points from 26 games.
How the model handles Serie A
Every Serie A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 35 Serie A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.7% on average and landing 80.0%. Its best-calibrated Serie A market so far is home win (61.0% claimed against 58.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie A predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie A table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie A market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.0% claimed against 58.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie A fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.