Serie B predictions
Brazil · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie B in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie B fixtures
- 26 Oct · 22:30America MineirovCuiabaNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 23:30JuventudevNautico RecifeNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 23:00CearavGoiasNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 22:30CriciumavPonte PretaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:00Botafogo SPvSport RecifeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 21:00Vila NovavJuventudeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 22:30Nautico RecifevAvaiNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 19:00LondrinavAmerica MineiroNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:30CuiabavSão BernardoNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:30NovorizontinovOperario-PRNo pick yet
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 30 | +32 | 64 | |
| 2 |  Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 36 | +14 | 62 | |
| 3 |  Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | +18 | 61 | |
| 4 |  Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 61 | |
| 5 |  Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 30 | +6 | 59 | |
| 6 |  CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 49 | +4 | 55 | |
| 7 |  Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 54 | |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 54 | |
| 9 |  Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 51 | |
| 10 |  Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 49 | |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 49 | |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 47 | |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 47 | |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 44 | |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 43 | |
| 16 |  Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 43 | |
| 17 |  Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 37 | |
| 18 |  Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 32 | |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | -32 | 20 | |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 76 | -55 | 15 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Serie B table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie B record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 15 | 63.5% | 86.7% | +23.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 25 | 83.8% | 96.0% | +12.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.7% | 0.0% | -52.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.8% | 100.0% | +23.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 2 | 63.8% | 50.0% | -13.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie B matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie B results
- 24 Oct · 22:30Ponte Preta2-2Fortaleza ECAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 22:30CRB2-1LondrinaNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:30São Bernardo3-2Vila NovaNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:30Atletico Goianiense0-1NovorizontinoNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:00Avai0-2Botafogo SPNo pick
- 24 Oct · 1:00Sport Recife2-1CriciumaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 23:30Operario-PR1-0Athletic ClubNo pick
- 20 Oct · 23:30Londrina1-0CuiabaNo pick
- 19 Oct · 23:30Goias0-0Nautico RecifeHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 22:00Vila Nova2-2NovorizontinoNo pick
About Serie B
Serie B is the second tier of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.33 goals per game over 347 matches: both teams scored in 47%, 43% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 27% drawn. Novorizontino lead the table on 64 points from 35 games.
How the model handles Serie B
Every Serie B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 44 Serie B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.1% on average and landing 88.6%. Its best-calibrated Serie B market so far is home or draw (83.8% claimed against 96.0% hit over 25 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie B predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie B table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie B tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.8% claimed against 96.0% hit over 25 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.