Serie B predictions
Brazil · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 10 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie B in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie B fixtures
- 10 Sept · 23:30São BernardovLondrinaNo pick yet
- 10 Sept · 23:30Vila NovavGoiasNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 1:30Sport RecifevPonte PretaHome or DrawStrong
- 13 Sept · 20:00Atletico GoianiensevCriciumaDrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 22:00JuventudevAthletic ClubNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 22:30Fortaleza ECvCearaHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 22:30NovorizontinovCuiabaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 23:30America MineirovSão BernardoNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 23:30Botafogo SPvGoiasNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 1:30AvaivVila NovaNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 23:30LondrinavPonte PretaNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 23:30Nautico RecifevOperario-PRNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 1:30CRBvSport RecifeNo pick yet
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventude | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 50 | |
| 2 |  Novorizontino | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 49 | |
| 3 |  Fortaleza EC | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 47 | |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 47 | |
| 5 |  Vila Nova | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 44 | |
| 6 |  Operario-PR | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 43 | |
| 7 |  Atletico Goianiense | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 43 | |
| 8 |  CRB | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 42 | |
| 9 |  Cuiaba | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 39 | |
| 10 |  Sport Recife | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 38 | |
| 11 |  Nautico Recife | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 37 | |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 37 | |
| 13 |  Goias | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 36 | |
| 14 |  São Bernardo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 35 | |
| 15 |  Botafogo SP | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 31 | |
| 16 |  Ceara | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 31 | |
| 17 |  Avai | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 29 | |
| 18 |  Londrina | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 22 | |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 17 | |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 54 | -38 | 10 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Serie B table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-10.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie B record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 60.7% | 100.0% | +39.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 83.1% | 100.0% | +16.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie B matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie B results
- 10 Sept · 1:30Atletico Goianiense2-1CearaNo pick
- 10 Sept · 0:30Operario-PR3-0CRBNo pick
- 10 Sept · 0:30America Mineiro2-1Nautico RecifeNo pick
- 9 Sept · 23:30Fortaleza EC1-0AvaiHome or Draw✓
- 9 Sept · 23:30Botafogo SP1-3NovorizontinoNo pick
- 9 Sept · 1:00Criciuma0-2JuventudeNo pick
- 9 Sept · 0:30Cuiaba3-0Athletic ClubNo pick
- 6 Sept · 22:30Ponte Preta0-2São BernardoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Londrina1-2Operario-PRDraw✗
- 5 Sept · 22:30Ceara2-1Sport RecifeNo pick
About Serie B
Serie B is the second tier of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.31 goals per game over 267 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 43% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 28% drawn. Juventude lead the table on 50 points from 27 games.
How the model handles Serie B
Every Serie B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 18 Serie B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.6% on average and landing 100.0%. Its best-calibrated Serie B market so far is home or draw (83.1% claimed against 100.0% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie B predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie B table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie B tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.1% claimed against 100.0% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.