Premier League predictions
Uganda · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 27 Oct · 13:00NECvNtugasazeNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 13:00PolicevKigezi HomeBoyzNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 13:00UPDFvURANo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 13:00SC VillavBlacks PowerHome or DrawSolid
- 27 Oct · 16:00ExpressvKatakaNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 13:00Entebbe UPPCvMaroonsNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 13:00KitaravBULNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 13:00Mbarara CityvVipersAway or DrawModerate
- 28 Oct · 17:00KCCAvLugaziHome WinModerate
- 30 Oct · 13:00KatakavPoliceNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Blacks PowervNECNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00BULvEntebbe UPPCNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00LugazivSC VillaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00MaroonsvKigezi HomeBoyzNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Mbarara CityvKCCANo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:00UPDFvKitaraNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00URAvVipersNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00NtugasazevExpressNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 19 | |
| 2 |  SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 17 | |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Entebbe UPPC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Blacks Power | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Vipers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 | |
| 8 |  KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 | |
| 10 |  UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Mbarara City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 | |
| 15 |  URA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | |
| 17 |  Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 2 | |
| 18 |  Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 63.5% | 57.1% | -6.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 83.5% | 75.0% | -8.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 24 Oct · 14:00Blacks Power3-2URANo pick
- 23 Oct · 18:00Vipers0-0PoliceHome or Draw✓
- 22 Oct · 14:00SC Villa2-0Mbarara CityHome or Draw✓
- 22 Oct · 14:00Kigezi HomeBoyz0-1Entebbe UPPCNo pick
- 21 Oct · 14:00Lugazi0-0ExpressNo pick
- 21 Oct · 14:00BUL2-1NECNo pick
- 20 Oct · 14:00Maroons4-1KatakaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 15:00UPDF0-2BULNo pick
- 15 Oct · 17:00URA0-0Entebbe UPPCNo pick
- 15 Oct · 14:00Express1-2UPDFHome or Draw✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Uganda football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.16 goals per game over 58 matches: both teams scored in 36%, 40% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 24% drawn. BUL lead the table on 19 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 19 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 76.1% on average and landing 68.4%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is home win (63.5% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 63.5% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.