Premier League predictions
Uganda · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 10 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 10 Sept · 14:00KatakavVipersNo pick yet
- 10 Sept · 14:00KitaravURANo pick yet
- 10 Sept · 14:00PolicevUPDFNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 14:00Mbarara CityvNECNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 14:00BULvBlacks PowerNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 14:00NECvURANo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 14:00SC VillavKigezi HomeBoyzNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 14:00LugazivPoliceNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 14:00Mbarara CityvEntebbe UPPCNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 14:00KCCAvKatakaNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 15:00UPDFvMaroonsNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 18:00ExpressvKitaraNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Blacks Power | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 | |
| 3 |  SC Villa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | |
| 4 |  NEC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 | |
| 5 |  Entebbe UPPC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Lugazi | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Maroons | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 8 |  URA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 9 |  Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 10 |  Express | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 11 |  Kitara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 |  Kigezi HomeBoyz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | |
| 13 |  UPDF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | |
| 14 |  Kataka | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | |
| 15 |  KCCA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Mbarara City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
| 17 |  Vipers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Ntugasaze | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-10.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 59.7% | 75.0% | +15.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 83.2% | 80.0% | -3.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 9 Sept · 14:00SC Villa2-0ExpressHome or Draw✓
- 9 Sept · 14:00Entebbe UPPC0-1LugaziNo pick
- 8 Sept · 14:00Kigezi HomeBoyz0-0KCCANo pick
- 8 Sept · 14:00Maroons1-2Blacks PowerNo pick
- 8 Sept · 14:00BUL4-1NtugasazeNo pick
- 4 Sept · 18:00URA0-1SC VillaNo pick
- 3 Sept · 18:00Express2-0KCCANo pick
- 3 Sept · 14:00Kataka1-4BULNo pick
- 2 Sept · 14:00Ntugasaze1-3MaroonsNo pick
- 2 Sept · 14:00Blacks Power1-0PoliceHome or Draw✓
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Uganda football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.14 goals per game over 21 matches: both teams scored in 43%, 38% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 14% drawn. BUL lead the table on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 9 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.8% on average and landing 77.8%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is home or draw (83.2% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.2% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.