Primera División predictions
Chile · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
- 12 Sept · 16:30NublensevEverton de VinaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:00CobresalvCoquimbo UnidoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00PalestinovU. CatolicaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:30Universidad de ConcepcionvHuachipatoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 19:00D. La SerenavUniversidad de ChileNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 21:30Colo ColovConcepciónHome or DrawModerate
- 14 Sept · 0:00A. ItalianovO'HigginsNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 0:30Union La CaleravDeportes LimacheNo pick yet
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo Colo | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 53 | |
| 2 |  U. Catolica | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 39 | |
| 3 |  Universidad de Chile | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 39 | |
| 4 |  Palestino | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 36 | |
| 5 |  Everton de Vina | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 33 | |
| 6 |  Deportes Limache | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Nublense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 32 | |
| 8 |  D. La Serena | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 30 | |
| 9 |  Concepción | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 30 | |
| 10 |  Coquimbo Unido | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 29 | |
| 11 |  O'Higgins | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 27 | |
| 12 |  A. Italiano | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 25 | |
| 13 |  Huachipato | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 25 | |
| 14 |  Universidad de Concepcion | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 22 | |
| 15 |  Cobresal | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 | |
| 16 |  Union La Calera | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 14 |
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 61.5% | 62.5% | +1.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.2% | 100.0% | +17.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 52.9% | 50.0% | -2.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.3% | 100.0% | +23.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 58.3% | 71.4% | +13.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 8 Sept · 0:00Deportes Limache3-0CobresalNo pick
- 6 Sept · 23:30Palestino2-1Universidad de ConcepcionHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 21:00Huachipato0-0Colo ColoAway or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 18:45O'Higgins2-1Union La CaleraNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30D. La Serena2-1NublenseNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:00Universidad de Chile4-2Coquimbo UnidoNo pick
- 5 Sept · 22:30Everton de Vina0-1U. CatolicaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 1:30Concepción0-1A. ItalianoNo pick
- 3 Sept · 1:30Deportes Limache2-0NublenseNo pick
- 2 Sept · 23:00Coquimbo Unido1-0Universidad de ConcepcionHome or Draw✓
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Chile football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.85 goals per game over 175 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 21% drawn. Colo Colo lead the table on 53 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 26 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.7% on average and landing 76.9%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (61.5% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.5% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.