Primera División predictions
Chile · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
- 25 Oct · 18:00Union La CaleravU. CatolicaAway or DrawModerate
- 25 Oct · 20:30PalestinovColo ColoNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 23:00Universidad de ConcepcionvDeportes LimacheNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 21:00Universidad de ChilevEverton de VinaNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 22:00Colo ColovUniversidad de ConcepcionNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 22:00Coquimbo UnidovUnion La CaleraNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 23:00O'HigginsvNublenseNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 15:00HuachipatovD. La SerenaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:15CobresalvEverton de VinaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 20:15U. CatolicavUniversidad de ChileNo pick yet
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 54 | |
| 2 |  Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 45 | |
| 3 |  U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 | |
| 4 |  Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 39 | |
| 5 |  Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 37 | |
| 6 |  Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 34 | |
| 7 |  D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 33 | |
| 8 |  Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 32 | |
| 9 |  Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 32 | |
| 10 |  Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 32 | |
| 11 |  Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 | |
| 12 |  A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 29 | |
| 13 |  O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 28 | |
| 14 |  Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 26 | |
| 15 |  Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 23 | |
| 16 |  Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 18 |
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 61.0% | 50.0% | -11.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 81.9% | 100.0% | +18.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 52.9% | 50.0% | -2.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.3% | 100.0% | +23.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 58.0% | 50.0% | -8.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 25 Oct · 15:30Nublense2-1Coquimbo UnidoNo pick
- 25 Oct · 0:00O'Higgins1-1CobresalNo pick
- 24 Oct · 16:30D. La Serena3-1ConcepciónNo pick
- 24 Oct · 0:00A. Italiano1-1HuachipatoNo pick
- 12 Oct · 21:00Universidad de Chile6-0NublenseNo pick
- 12 Oct · 0:00Deportes Limache2-2PalestinoNo pick
- 11 Oct · 21:30Concepción1-1Union La CaleraNo pick
- 11 Oct · 19:00Coquimbo Unido5-2Colo ColoNo pick
- 11 Oct · 16:30Everton de Vina3-2D. La SerenaNo pick
- 10 Oct · 21:30Huachipato2-0O'HigginsNo pick
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Chile football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.88 goals per game over 195 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 22% drawn. Colo Colo lead the table on 54 points from 24 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 26 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 69.2%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is over 2.5 (58.0% claimed against 50.0% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 58.0% claimed against 50.0% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.