Primera B predictions
Chile · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera B in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera B fixtures
- 10 Sept · 0:30Deportes CopiapovMagallanesOver 2.5Moderate
- 10 Sept · 0:30Deportes IquiquevDeportes Santa CruzHome or DrawModerate
- 11 Sept · 0:00AntofagastavCobreloaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:30MagallanesvD. Puerto MonttNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 19:00San Marcos de AricavCurico UnidoNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 22:00Deportes Santa CruzvRecoletaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 22:00Union San FelipevDeportes CopiapoNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 0:30Rangers de TalcavDeportes IquiqueNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 22:00San LuisvAntofagastaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 0:30Union EspanolavDeportes TemucoNo pick yet
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 40 | 25 | +15 | 44 | |
| 2 |  Cobreloa | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 41 | |
| 3 |  San Luis | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 38 | |
| 4 |  Antofagasta | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 37 | |
| 5 |  Magallanes | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 36 | |
| 6 |  Union Espanola | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 35 | |
| 7 |  Recoleta | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 34 | |
| 8 |  D. Puerto Montt | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 34 | |
| 9 |  San Marcos de Arica | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 33 | |
| 10 |  Deportes Temuco | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 31 | |
| 11 |  Deportes Copiapo | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 30 | |
| 12 |  Curico Unido | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 27 | |
| 13 |  Deportes Iquique | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 25 | |
| 14 |  Union San Felipe | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 22 | |
| 15 |  Deportes Santa Cruz | 23 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 18 | |
| 16 |  Rangers de Talca | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 18 |
Official Primera B table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera B record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 59.3% | 50.0% | -9.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 81.7% | 80.0% | -1.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 59.4% | 40.0% | -19.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera B matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera B results
- 9 Sept · 22:00Recoleta2-1San Marcos de AricaDraw✗
- 9 Sept · 0:30Deportes Temuco3-0Santiago WanderersNo pick
- 9 Sept · 0:30Curico Unido2-1Union EspanolaNo pick
- 8 Sept · 22:00D. Puerto Montt1-2Rangers de TalcaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30Antofagasta1-2RecoletaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:00San Marcos de Arica2-1Deportes CopiapoNo pick
- 5 Sept · 22:30San Luis4-2CobreloaDraw✗
- 5 Sept · 20:00Deportes Santa Cruz1-1Union EspanolaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:30Magallanes0-0Union San FelipeOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 1:30D. Puerto Montt2-0Curico UnidoNo pick
About Primera B
Primera B is the second tier of Chile football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.68 goals per game over 188 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 31% drawn. Santiago Wanderers lead the table on 44 points from 24 games.
How the model handles Primera B
Every Primera B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 14 Primera B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 57.1%. Its best-calibrated Primera B market so far is home or draw (81.7% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera B predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera B table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera B market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera B tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.7% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera B fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.