How are these Primera A predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera A table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.6% claimed against 53.8% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera A predictions

Colombia · top flight · table updated 9 Sept

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera A in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera A fixtures

Primera A table

Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31	24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29	25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25	15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29	22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26	26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20	16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20	25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17	20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13	27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22	35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15	32	-17	10

Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	+16	20
2	Deportes Tolima	7	5	1	1	12	8	+4	16
3	Independiente Medellin	6	5	0	1	12	6	+6	15
4	Atletico Nacional	5	4	0	1	12	4	+8	12
5	Millonarios	8	3	3	2	9	6	+3	12
6	Llaneros	8	3	2	3	9	9	0	11
7	Santa Fe	7	2	4	1	11	9	+2	10
8	Águilas Doradas	6	2	4	0	10	8	+2	10
9	Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	+2	10
10	Once Caldas	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	Cucuta	8	2	3	3	8	13	-5	9
12	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	+2	8
13	Internacional de Bogota	8	1	5	2	8	10	-2	8
14	Fortaleza FC	8	1	4	3	8	10	-2	7
15	Deportivo Pereira	6	1	3	2	3	6	-3	6
16	Jaguares	7	1	3	3	7	12	-5	6
17	Chico	6	1	2	3	4	12	-8	5
18	Junior	6	0	3	3	8	12	-4	3
19	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	-8	2
20	Alianza Valledupar	7	0	2	5	5	15	-10	2

Post season qualification

Official Primera A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.

This season in numbers

2.55

goals per game (273 matches)

54%

both teams scored

47%

over 2.5 goals

75%

over 1.5 goals

23%

over 3.5 goals

45%

home wins

32%

draws

23%

away wins

The model's Primera A record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	13	62.6%	53.8%	-8.8
Home or draw≥ 80%	21	83.5%	95.2%	+11.7
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera A matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera A results

About Primera A

Primera A is the top flight of Colombia football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.55 goals per game over 273 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 32% drawn. The table is published as Apertura, Clausura.

How the model handles Primera A

Every Primera A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 34 Primera A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.5% on average and landing 79.4%. Its best-calibrated Primera A market so far is home win (62.6% claimed against 53.8% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera A predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera A table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.6% claimed against 53.8% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.

Other Colombia competitions

Primera B