How are these Primera A predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera A table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera A tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 86.5% hit over 37 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera A predictions

Colombia · top flight · table updated 25 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera A in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera A fixtures

Primera A table

Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31	24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29	25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25	15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29	22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26	26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20	16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20	25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17	20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13	27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22	35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15	32	-17	10

Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	America de Cali	15	9	4	2	29	11	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	9	2	3	28	12	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	8	5	2	23	9	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	6	7	1	22	13	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	7	4	3	21	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	20	18	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	6	3	6	18	22	-4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	18	18	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	4	7	4	19	20	-1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	3	8	4	18	21	-3	17
13	Llaneros	15	5	2	8	16	20	-4	17
14	Junior	15	3	6	6	20	23	-3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	4	3	7	15	26	-11	15
16	Chico	15	4	3	8	12	25	-13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	2	8	5	11	19	-8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	1	8	5	15	21	-6	11
19	Jaguares	14	2	4	8	16	28	-12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	2	3	9	9	22	-13	9

Post season qualification

Official Primera A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.

This season in numbers

2.54

goals per game (351 matches)

54%

both teams scored

48%

over 2.5 goals

75%

over 1.5 goals

24%

over 3.5 goals

45%

home wins

31%

draws

24%

away wins

The model's Primera A record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	26	62.5%	57.7%	-4.8
Home or draw≥ 80%	37	83.9%	86.5%	+2.6
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera A matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera A results

About Primera A

Primera A is the top flight of Colombia football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.54 goals per game over 351 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 48% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 31% drawn. The table is published as Apertura, Clausura.

How the model handles Primera A

Every Primera A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 63 Primera A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.1% on average and landing 74.6%. Its best-calibrated Primera A market so far is home or draw (83.9% claimed against 86.5% hit over 37 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera A predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera A table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera A tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 86.5% hit over 37 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.

Other Colombia competitions

Primera B