How are these Primera División predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera División table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera División tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.1% claimed against 66.7% hit over 33 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera División predictions

Peru · top flight · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera División fixtures

Primera División table

Primera Division: Tabla Anual

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	16	8	6	52	34	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	15	3	12	45	43	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	49	40	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	-8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	-2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	-11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	-7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	38	43	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	-18	28
17	ADT	30	6	9	15	31	45	-14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	-21	15(-5)

Primera Division: Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	30	8	+22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	25	21	+4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	34	22	+12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	24	15	+9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	29	20	+9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	21	24	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	21	18	+3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	20	18	+2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	18	20	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	22	21	+1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	15	19	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	28	30	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	21	26	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	17	24	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	23	28	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	12	18	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	21	31	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	22	40	-18	16

Primera Division: Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sport Huancayo	13	9	1	3	23	15	+8	28
2	Universitario	13	8	3	2	28	19	+9	27
3	Sporting Cristal	13	8	1	4	26	15	+11	25
4	FBC Melgar	13	7	4	2	24	14	+10	25
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	20	11	+9	22
6	Juan Pablo II College	13	6	4	3	23	16	+7	22
7	Alianza Lima	12	6	4	2	19	12	+7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	13	7	1	5	25	26	-1	22
9	Cusco	13	7	0	6	24	19	+5	21
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	15	12	+3	18
11	Atletico Grau	13	5	3	5	16	17	-1	18
12	Cienciano	12	4	2	6	15	18	-3	14
13	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	13	25	-12	12
14	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	18	25	-7	11
15	Comerciantes Unidos	12	2	4	6	20	23	-3	10
16	UCV Moquegua	12	2	4	6	8	19	-11	10
17	ADT	13	1	4	8	9	24	-15	7
18	UTC Cajamarca	13	0	2	11	12	28	-16	2

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)

Official Primera División table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to UTC Cajamarca · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

2.79

goals per game (266 matches)

59%

both teams scored

54%

over 2.5 goals

74%

over 1.5 goals

33%

over 3.5 goals

52%

home wins

24%

draws

24%

away wins

The model's Primera División record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	33	65.1%	66.7%	+1.6
Home or draw≥ 80%	37	84.7%	86.5%	+1.8
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	20	59.7%	65.0%	+5.3
BTTS≥ 63%	2	63.5%	50.0%	-13.5

Settled Primera División matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera División results

About Primera División

Primera División is the top flight of Peru football played across 3 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.79 goals per game over 266 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 52% with 24% drawn. The table is published as Primera Division: Tabla Anual, Primera Division: Apertura, Primera Division: Clausura. UTC Cajamarca (-5) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.

How the model handles Primera División

Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 92 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.8% on average and landing 73.9%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (65.1% claimed against 66.7% hit over 33 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera División predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera División table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera División tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.1% claimed against 66.7% hit over 33 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.