How are these Serie B predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Serie B table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Serie B tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 60.6% claimed against 40.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Serie B predictions

Italy · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Serie B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie B in the Bet Finder.

This week's Serie B fixtures

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	7	6	1	0	16	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	8	5	2	1	14	8	+6	17
3	Modena	8	5	1	2	15	8	+7	16
4	Ascoli	8	4	3	1	14	6	+8	15
5	Benevento	8	4	2	2	13	7	+6	14
6	Pisa	7	4	1	2	14	9	+5	13
7	Sudtirol	8	3	4	1	10	7	+3	13
8	Avellino	8	3	2	3	12	9	+3	11
9	Padova	8	3	1	4	7	10	-3	10
10	Arezzo	8	3	1	4	8	17	-9	10
11	Virtus Entella	8	2	3	3	10	9	+1	9
12	Vicenza Virtus	8	2	3	3	11	15	-4	9
13	Hellas Verona	7	2	2	3	14	12	+2	8
14	Juve Stabia	8	3	3	2	9	8	+1	8(-4)
15	Cesena	8	1	5	2	8	12	-4	8
16	Empoli	8	2	1	5	7	13	-6	7
17	Carrarese	7	2	1	4	6	7	-1	7
18	Cremonese	8	1	3	4	6	11	-5	6
19	Sampdoria	8	1	2	5	8	16	-8	5
20	Catanzaro	8	1	1	6	9	20	-11	4

Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation

Official Serie B table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Juve Stabia · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

2.70

goals per game (80 matches)

61%

both teams scored

54%

over 2.5 goals

79%

over 1.5 goals

26%

over 3.5 goals

36%

home wins

28%

draws

36%

away wins

The model's Serie B record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	5	60.6%	40.0%	-20.6
Home or draw≥ 80%	10	82.0%	60.0%	-22.0
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	2	58.2%	100.0%	+41.8
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Serie B matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Serie B results

About Serie B

Serie B is the second tier of Italy football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.70 goals per game over 80 matches: both teams scored in 61%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 36% with 28% drawn. Palermo lead the table on 19 points from 7 games. Juve Stabia (-4) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.

How the model handles Serie B

Every Serie B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 17 Serie B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.9% on average and landing 58.8%. Its best-calibrated Serie B market so far is home win (60.6% claimed against 40.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Serie B predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Serie B table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Serie B tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 60.6% claimed against 40.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.