Serie B predictions
Italy · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie B in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie B fixtures
- 11 Sept · 18:00EmpolivArezzoAway or DrawModerate
- 11 Sept · 20:00BeneventovHellas VeronaNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 20:00PisavVirtus EntellaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:00Vicenza VirtusvJuve StabiaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:00PadovavAscoliNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:00SudtirolvModenaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 16:15CatanzarovCarrareseHome or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 18:30CesenavCremoneseOver 2.5Moderate
- 13 Sept · 14:00AvellinovPalermoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:15MantovavSampdoriaNo pick yet
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Mantova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 | |
| 3 |  Sudtirol | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Ascoli | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Avellino | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Pisa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Empoli | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 8 |  Modena | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Cesena | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Hellas Verona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Padova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | |
| 12 |  Vicenza Virtus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Cremonese | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Arezzo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Virtus Entella | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Carrarese | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | |
| 17 |  Benevento | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Sampdoria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | |
| 19 |  Juve Stabia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1(-2) | |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
- Promotion - Serie A
- Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Serie B (Play Out)
- Relegation
Official Serie B table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Juve Stabia · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie B record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 59.8% | 33.3% | -26.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 81.6% | 66.7% | -14.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 58.7% | 100.0% | +41.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie B matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie B results
- 7 Sept · 19:30Palermo3-1SampdoriaHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 18:30Cremonese3-1PadovaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:15Hellas Verona5-0ArezzoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 14:00Modena0-1AvellinoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 14:00Juve Stabia0-3PisaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 14:00Virtus Entella2-2Vicenza VirtusNo pick
- 6 Sept · 14:00Cesena1-1MantovaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 18:30Carrarese0-1EmpoliHome or Draw✗
- 5 Sept · 16:15Ascoli1-0BeneventoDraw✗
- 5 Sept · 14:00Sudtirol2-0CatanzaroNo pick
About Serie B
Serie B is the second tier of Italy football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.67 goals per game over 30 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 20% drawn. Palermo lead the table on 9 points from 3 games. Juve Stabia (-2) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles Serie B
Every Serie B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 10 Serie B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.8% on average and landing 60.0%. Its best-calibrated Serie B market so far is home or draw (81.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie B predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie B table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie B tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.