Serie A predictions
Italy · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie A in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie A fixtures
- 25 Oct · 17:00LeccevJuventusAway or DrawModerate
- 25 Oct · 19:45UdinesevAC MilanAway or DrawSolid
- 27 Oct · 17:30SassuolovLazioNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 19:45AS RomavCagliariHome or DrawSolid
- 27 Oct · 19:45TorinovComoNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 17:30AC MilanvBolognaNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 17:30ParmavUdineseNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 17:30VeneziavInterAway or DrawStrong
- 28 Oct · 19:45GenoavJuventusAway or DrawModerate
- 28 Oct · 19:45MonzavNapoliAway or DrawModerate
- 29 Oct · 17:30FrosinonevLecceNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 19:45FiorentinavAtalantaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:00BolognavMonzaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00UdinesevAS RomaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:45AC MilanvInterNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 11:30ComovVeneziaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 14:00FrosinonevTorinoNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 14:00LaziovCagliariNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:00LeccevGenoaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 19:45JuventusvNapoliNo pick yet
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 22 | |
| 2 |  Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 19 | |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 | |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Serie A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie A record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 64.6% | 87.5% | +22.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 11 | 83.5% | 72.7% | -10.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 55.8% | 80.0% | +24.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 78.5% | 80.0% | +1.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 8 | 60.8% | 87.5% | +26.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie A matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie A results
- 25 Oct · 11:30Inter2-1FiorentinaHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 19:45Lazio2-1ParmaOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 17:00Napoli3-3AS RomaNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:00Como2-0SassuoloNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:00Cagliari0-2BolognaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Torino3-2MonzaNo pick
- 19 Oct · 19:45Parma0-3TorinoNo pick
- 19 Oct · 17:30Monza4-0CagliariNo pick
- 18 Oct · 19:45Juventus0-3LazioNo pick
- 18 Oct · 17:00AC Milan3-2AtalantaNo pick
About Serie A
Serie A is the top flight of Italy football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 76 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 17% drawn. Lazio lead the table on 22 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Serie A
Every Serie A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 37 Serie A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.1% on average and landing 81.1%. Its best-calibrated Serie A market so far is away or draw (78.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie A predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie A table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie A market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie A tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 78.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie A fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.