1:00UPCOMING
Firpo
AlianzaHome or Draw (1X)
Moderate@ 1.1781%
Double chance · Thu 5 Nov
Double chance predictions, 5 Nov
Every match where home or draw reaches 80%, or away or draw 77.5%, at a price worth having. Settled matches stay on the page with the score.
This day
12
picks
Last 90 days
83.6%
landed · 82.7% claimed · 1363 picks
AFC Cup
World2 predictions
The last 90 days on this page's rule: 1363 settled picks, 82.7% claimed on average, 83.6% landed. The page started on 27 Oct; before that, the record replays the same rule on the predictions we stored at the time, frozen at kick-off.
What double chance means
A double chance bet covers two of the three results. Home or draw (1X) wins unless the away side wins; away or draw (X2) wins unless the home side wins. It lands more often than backing a team outright, and it is priced shorter for the same reason.
How these predictions are made
The result model gives every match a home, draw and away probability, and double chance is two of them added together. This page lists home or draw at 80% or more and away or draw at 77.5% or more, where that side is also at least an even-money chance to win outright. Each pick also needs a bookmaker price of at least 1.10, and the model can't sit more than 5points above the bookmaker's implied probability.
How to read the prices
Double chance is where the model is most often right, because it only has to avoid one result. The other side of that is the price: most of these are short, so one loss can cancel several wins. Use the probability and the price together, and stake accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
- What do 1X and X2 mean?
- 1X is home or draw: it wins unless the away side wins. X2 is away or draw: it wins unless the home side wins. 12, either team to win, isn't on this page.
- Why isn't every strong favourite listed?
- When a side is very likely to win, its double chance price usually drops below 1.10, and those are left off. The outright win is often the better-priced pick, and that's on today's predictions page.
- Why does the model have to agree with the bookmaker?
- When the model's double chance probability sits well above the bookmaker's own estimate, the bookmaker has usually been the one that's right. So a pick only appears when the two are close.
- How often do these land?
- The record at the top of the page shows it: the share of settled picks that landed, against what the model claimed, over the last 90 days.