UEFA Europa League predictions
European competitions · cup · 36 teams · table updated 26 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every UEFA Europa League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter UEFA Europa League in the Bet Finder.
This week's UEFA Europa League fixtures
No UEFA Europa League fixtures in the next 7 days.
UEFA Europa League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 | |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 | |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 | |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 | |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | |
| 31 |  Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 | |
| 32 |  Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | |
| 33 |  Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
- Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
- Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
Official UEFA Europa League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-26.
This season in numbers
The model's UEFA Europa League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 27 | 62.9% | 85.2% | +22.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 28 | 83.5% | 96.4% | +12.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 8 | 55.0% | 62.5% | +7.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 77.1% | 85.7% | +8.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 61.8% | 41.7% | -20.1 |
Settled UEFA Europa League matches since 29 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent UEFA Europa League results
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Plzen1-2Levski SofiaNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Omonia Nicosia1-4BenficaNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Olympiakos Piraeus1-0Sparta PrahaHome or Draw✓
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Lillestrom0-6Real SociedadNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Jagiellonia0-3AnderlechtNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 31899 Hoffenheim3-0LyonNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Celtic1-2Celta VigoNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Celje2-2Red Bull SalzburgNo pick
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Bournemouth3-0AC MilanHome or Draw✓
- 22 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Beşiktaş2-2Crystal PalaceNo pick
About UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League is one of UEFA's three club competitions: qualifying rounds, then a 36-team league phase, then knockout ties. The 2026/27 edition has produced 2.84 goals per game over 134 matches (90-minute scores, extra time left out): both teams scored in 46%, 59% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 21% drawn. Benfica lead the league phase on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League ties are scored by a cup model, trained on cup football and separate from the league model: it adds a strength rating for each side's domestic league, built from European results, and the first-leg score in two-legged ties to the usual form, Elo and rest-day inputs. We don't publish both-teams-to-score calls for UEFA Europa League: the cup model's BTTS numbers haven't been reliable enough to stand behind. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 29 Jul, the model has settled 82 UEFA Europa League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.2% on average and landing 80.5%. Its best-calibrated UEFA Europa League market so far is away win (55.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these UEFA Europa League predictions made?
- Each tie gets probabilities from two models trained on cup football: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for over/under goals. Inputs are recent form, Elo ratings, rest days, a strength rating for each side's domestic league and the first-leg score in two-legged ties and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. The goals probabilities pass through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Do UEFA Europa League predictions include extra time and penalties?
- No. The model predicts the 90-minute result, the way bookmakers settle the match-result and goals markets, and the season figures on this page use 90-minute scores too. In a two-legged tie each leg is predicted on its own, with the first-leg score as an input to the second.
- Which UEFA Europa League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled UEFA Europa League tips since 29 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 55.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are UEFA Europa League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter UEFA Europa League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.