UEFA Champions League predictions
European competitions · cup · 36 teams · table updated 27 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every UEFA Champions League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter UEFA Champions League in the Bet Finder.
This week's UEFA Champions League fixtures
- 3 Nov · 17:45League phase, matchday 4GalatasarayvVfB StuttgartNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 17:45League phase, matchday 4Shakhtar DonetskvSporting CPNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4Atletico MadridvBayern MünchenNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4BarcelonavAston VillaNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4Bodo/GlimtvLilleNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4FeyenoordvInterNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4Lask LinzvSlovan BratislavaNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4Manchester UnitedvAS RomaNo pick yet
- 3 Nov · 20:00League phase, matchday 4VillarrealvParis Saint GermainNo pick yet
UEFA Champions League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 | |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 5 | |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3 | |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 | |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 | |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 | |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
- Play Offs
Official UEFA Champions League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-27.
This season in numbers
The model's UEFA Champions League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 23 | 64.3% | 73.9% | +9.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 25 | 82.9% | 84.0% | +1.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 55.8% | 66.7% | +10.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 77.9% | 66.7% | -11.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 20 | 60.8% | 85.0% | +24.2 |
Settled UEFA Champions League matches since 29 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent UEFA Champions League results
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Sporting CP2-3Lask LinzNo pick
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Real Madrid4-1RB LeipzigNo pick
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Inter1-0Shakhtar DonetskNo pick
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Club Brugge KV3-0LensDraw✗
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Real Betis1-0FeyenoordDraw✗
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Bayern München2-2ArsenalNo pick
- 21 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3Aston Villa3-1VikingHome or Draw✓
- 21 Oct · 17:45League phase, matchday 3Lille2-4GalatasarayNo pick
- 21 Oct · 17:45League phase, matchday 3Como4-1Manchester UnitedNo pick
- 20 Oct · 20:00League phase, matchday 3VfB Stuttgart1-1Atletico MadridDraw✓
About UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League is one of UEFA's three club competitions: qualifying rounds, then a 36-team league phase, then knockout ties. The 2026/27 edition has produced 3.30 goals per game over 144 matches (90-minute scores, extra time left out): both teams scored in 58%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 54% with 20% drawn. Paris Saint Germain lead the league phase on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League ties are scored by a cup model, trained on cup football and separate from the league model: it adds a strength rating for each side's domestic league, built from European results, and the first-leg score in two-legged ties to the usual form, Elo and rest-day inputs. We don't publish both-teams-to-score calls for UEFA Champions League: the cup model's BTTS numbers haven't been reliable enough to stand behind. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 29 Jul, the model has settled 80 UEFA Champions League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.6% on average and landing 78.8%. Its best-calibrated UEFA Champions League market so far is home or draw (82.9% claimed against 84.0% hit over 25 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these UEFA Champions League predictions made?
- Each tie gets probabilities from two models trained on cup football: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for over/under goals. Inputs are recent form, Elo ratings, rest days, a strength rating for each side's domestic league and the first-leg score in two-legged ties and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. The goals probabilities pass through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Do UEFA Champions League predictions include extra time and penalties?
- No. The model predicts the 90-minute result, the way bookmakers settle the match-result and goals markets, and the season figures on this page use 90-minute scores too. In a two-legged tie each leg is predicted on its own, with the first-leg score as an input to the second.
- Which UEFA Champions League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled UEFA Champions League tips since 29 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.9% claimed against 84.0% hit over 25 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are UEFA Champions League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter UEFA Champions League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.