Primera Division predictions
El Salvador · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera Division fixtures
- 25 Oct · 21:00Fuerte San FranciscovAtletico BalboaNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 21:00PlatensevFirpoAway or DrawSolid
- 31 Oct · 1:00IntervPlatenseNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 21:00CacahuatiquevInca ArubaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 1:00Isidro MetapánvMunicipal LimeñoNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:00Atletico BalboavAlianzaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:00Fuerte San FranciscovÁguilaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 23:30FirpovFASNo pick yet
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 31 | |
| 2 |  FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 31 | |
| 3 |  Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 30 | |
| 4 |  Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 27 | |
| 5 |  Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 26 | |
| 6 |  Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 | |
| 7 |  Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 22 | |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 21 | |
| 9 |  Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 16 | |
| 10 |  Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 | |
| 11 |  Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | |
| 12 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 12 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Primera Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 62.5% | 57.1% | -5.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 84.7% | 87.5% | +2.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.2% | 100.0% | +47.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.7% | 100.0% | +22.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 60.6% | 100.0% | +39.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera Division matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera Division results
- 25 Oct · 1:00Municipal Limeño3-3CacahuatiqueNo pick
- 24 Oct · 22:00Águila3-1FASNo pick
- 24 Oct · 22:00Alianza1-0Isidro MetapánNo pick
- 24 Oct · 1:00Inca Aruba0-2InterNo pick
- 22 Oct · 2:30FAS0-0Isidro MetapánNo pick
- 19 Oct · 0:30FAS2-3PlatenseHome or Draw✗
- 18 Oct · 22:00Atletico Balboa2-2ÁguilaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 2:00Isidro Metapán3-2Fuerte San FranciscoHome or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 22:00Cacahuatique0-0AlianzaNo pick
- 17 Oct · 2:00Inter1-2Municipal LimeñoNo pick
About Primera Division
Primera Division is the top flight of El Salvador football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.68 goals per game over 99 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 31% drawn. Firpo lead the table on 31 points from 15 games.
How the model handles Primera Division
Every Primera Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 18 Primera Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.5% on average and landing 77.8%. Its best-calibrated Primera Division market so far is home or draw (84.7% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera Division tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 84.7% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.