Primera Division predictions
El Salvador · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera Division fixtures
- 10 Sept · 2:00FirpovCacahuatiqueNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 3:00AlianzavFuerte San FranciscoHome or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 22:00Atletico BalboavPlatenseNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 22:30ÁguilavInca ArubaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 2:00Isidro MetapánvFirpoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 22:00CacahuatiquevInterNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 22:00Fuerte San FranciscovMunicipal LimeñoNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 0:30FASvAlianzaNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 2:00FirpovAlianzaNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 2:00IntervFASNo pick yet
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FAS | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 | |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Inter | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Firpo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Municipal Limeño | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Platense | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Alianza | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Atletico Balboa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Águila | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Inca Aruba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Cacahuatique | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Primera Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 63.2% | 100.0% | +36.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 84.6% | 100.0% | +15.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera Division results
- 10 Sept · 2:00Municipal Limeño0-0ÁguilaNo pick
- 9 Sept · 22:00Platense1-2Isidro MetapánDraw✗
- 9 Sept · 1:00Inca Aruba1-0Atletico BalboaNo pick
- 7 Sept · 0:30Firpo3-0InterNo pick
- 6 Sept · 22:00Atletico Balboa0-2Municipal LimeñoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 22:00Águila2-2AlianzaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 2:00Isidro Metapán0-1Inca ArubaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 22:00Fuerte San Francisco0-1FASNo pick
- 5 Sept · 22:00Cacahuatique1-2PlatenseDraw✗
- 31 Aug · 0:30FAS3-1FirpoNo pick
About Primera Division
Primera Division is the top flight of El Salvador football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.48 goals per game over 50 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 44% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 32% drawn. FAS lead the table on 16 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Primera Division
Every Primera Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 5 Primera Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 76.0% on average and landing 100.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera Division market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Primera Division tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Primera Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.