Bundesliga predictions
Germany · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 31 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
- 1 Nov · 14:30Union Berlinv1. FC KölnBTTSModerate
- 1 Nov · 16:30Eintracht FrankfurtvHamburger SVOver 2.5Moderate
- 6 Nov · 19:30Hamburger SVvBorussia MönchengladbachNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 14:30Borussia DortmundvSV ElversbergNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 14:30RB LeipzigvFC AugsburgNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 14:30FSV Mainz 05vBayern MünchenNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 14:30SC Paderborn 07vEintracht FrankfurtNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 17:30VfB StuttgartvWerder BremenNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 14:301. FC KölnvBayer LeverkusenNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 16:30SC FreiburgvUnion BerlinNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 18:301899 HoffenheimvFC Schalke 04No pick yet
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 | |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 | |
| 6 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 | |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 | |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 9 | |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 | |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 | |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 3 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- Qualifying
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-31.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 14 | 69.1% | 78.6% | +9.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 85.5% | 92.9% | +7.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 60.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 78.9% | 83.3% | +4.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 48 | 63.4% | 70.8% | +7.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 20 | 64.6% | 60.0% | -4.6 |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 31 Oct · 17:30Bayern München2-2Borussia DortmundBTTS✓
- 31 Oct · 14:30FC Schalke 040-2RB LeipzigNo pick
- 31 Oct · 14:30Werder Bremen2-01899 HoffenheimBTTS✗
- 31 Oct · 14:30Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0SC Paderborn 07BTTS✗
- 31 Oct · 14:30FC Augsburg1-2SC FreiburgBTTS✓
- 31 Oct · 14:30Bayer Leverkusen2-4VfB StuttgartBTTS✓
- 30 Oct · 19:30SV Elversberg4-1FSV Mainz 05BTTS✓
- 25 Oct · 16:30SC Freiburg1-3Bayern MünchenAway or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 14:301899 Hoffenheim3-0Bayer LeverkusenOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 17:30Borussia Dortmund1-0Eintracht FrankfurtOver 2.5✗
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Germany football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.51 goals per game over 70 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 70% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 21% drawn. Bayern München lead the table on 17 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 108 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.9% on average and landing 71.3%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is away or draw (78.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 78.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.