Bundesliga predictions
Germany · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
- 18 Sept · 19:30Bayern MünchenvUnion BerlinOver 2.5Strong
- 19 Sept · 14:30Eintracht FrankfurtvSC FreiburgNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 14:30Hamburger SVv1. FC KölnNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 14:30Werder BremenvFC AugsburgNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 14:30Borussia MönchengladbachvFSV Mainz 05No pick yet
- 19 Sept · 17:30VfB StuttgartvBorussia DortmundNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 14:30Bayer LeverkusenvRB LeipzigNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 16:30FC Schalke 04vSV ElversbergNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 18:30SC Paderborn 07v1899 HoffenheimNo pick yet
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 | |
| 3 |  FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Bayern München | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 | |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 | |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 | |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 11 |  FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 | |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- Qualifying
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 66.2% | 100.0% | +33.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 85.0% | 100.0% | +15.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 64.2% | 50.0% | -14.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 80.9% | 100.0% | +19.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 63.7% | 81.3% | +17.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 13 Sept · 16:30SV Elversberg1-2Bayern MünchenAway or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 14:30RB Leipzig5-0Hamburger SVOver 2.5✓
- 12 Sept · 17:301. FC Köln1-1Werder BremenOver 2.5✗
- 12 Sept · 14:30FSV Mainz 051-3Eintracht FrankfurtNo pick
- 12 Sept · 14:30FC Augsburg2-2Bayer LeverkusenAway or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 14:30SC Freiburg5-0Borussia MönchengladbachHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 14:301899 Hoffenheim2-1VfB StuttgartNo pick
- 12 Sept · 14:30Borussia Dortmund3-0SC Paderborn 07Over 2.5✓
- 11 Sept · 19:30Union Berlin1-3FC Schalke 04No pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30Eintracht Frankfurt1-4FC AugsburgNo pick
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Germany football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.85 goals per game over 27 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 82% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 52% with 19% drawn. SC Freiburg lead the table on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 35 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.5% on average and landing 88.6%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is home or draw (85.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.