How are these 3. Liga predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the 3. Liga table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which 3. Liga market is the model most reliable in?

On settled 3. Liga tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.5% claimed against 60.7% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are 3. Liga fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page.

3. Liga predictions

Germany · third tier · 20 teams · table updated 30 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every 3. Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 3. Liga in the Bet Finder.

This week's 3. Liga fixtures

3. Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	28	14	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	30	15	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	19	13	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	11	5	2	4	26	20	+6	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	17	17	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	15	16	-1	17
7	Waldhof Mannheim	11	5	1	5	20	17	+3	16
8	Hoffenheim II	11	5	1	5	21	19	+2	16
9	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	18	20	-2	16
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	12	4	4	4	12	14	-2	16
11	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	19	16	+3	15
12	SV Meppen	12	4	3	5	16	17	-1	15
13	Preußen Münster	11	4	3	4	19	21	-2	15
14	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	18	20	-2	14
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	16	22	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	13	25	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	15	23	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	20	20	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	11	2	4	5	8	12	-4	10
20	Havelse	11	2	3	6	16	25	-9	9

Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation

Official 3. Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.

This season in numbers

3.30

goals per game (117 matches)

63%

both teams scored

64%

over 2.5 goals

81%

over 1.5 goals

41%

over 3.5 goals

41%

home wins

24%

draws

35%

away wins

The model's 3. Liga record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	4	62.1%	50.0%	-12.1
Home or draw≥ 80%	6	82.6%	83.3%	+0.7
Away win≥ 50%	1	53.0%	0.0%	-53.0
Away or draw≥ 73%	1	77.2%	0.0%	-77.2
Over 2.5≥ 57%	28	60.5%	60.7%	+0.2
BTTS≥ 63%	16	65.3%	68.8%	+3.5

Settled 3. Liga matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent 3. Liga results

About 3. Liga

3. Liga is the third tier of Germany football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.30 goals per game over 117 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 24% drawn. MSV Duisburg lead the table on 25 points from 11 games.

How the model handles 3. Liga

Every 3. Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 56 3. Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.5% on average and landing 62.5%. Its best-calibrated 3. Liga market so far is over 2.5 (60.5% claimed against 60.7% hit over 28 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these 3. Liga predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the 3. Liga table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which 3. Liga market is the model most reliable in?: On settled 3. Liga tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.5% claimed against 60.7% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are 3. Liga fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter 3. Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.