Queensland Premier League predictions
Australia · 13th tier · 12 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Queensland Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Queensland Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Queensland Premier League fixtures
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 18 | +34 | 54 | |
| 2 |  Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 52 | |
| 3 |  SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 37 | |
| 4 |  Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 35 | |
| 5 |  Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 32 | |
| 6 |  Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 31 | |
| 7 |  Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 | |
| 8 |  Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 30 | |
| 9 |  Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 27 | |
| 10 |  North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 21 | |
| 11 |  St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 52 | -39 | 13 | |
| 12 |  Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 11 |
Official Queensland Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Queensland Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 63.7% | 100.0% | +36.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 2 | 82.5% | 100.0% | +17.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.0% | 0.0% | -77.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 15 | 63.7% | 66.7% | +3.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 64.6% | 66.7% | +2.1 |
Settled Queensland Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Queensland Premier League results
- 5 Sept · 6:00Broadbeach United2-0SC WanderersOver 2.5✗
- 30 Aug · 9:30SC Wanderers1-0IpswichOver 2.5✗
- 29 Aug · 9:00Brisbane Strikers1-0Broadbeach UnitedNo pick
- 15 Aug · 7:15North Star2-1CabooltureOver 2.5✓
- 15 Aug · 7:15Capalaba1-2Robina CityOver 2.5✓
- 15 Aug · 7:15Broadbeach United1-0IpswichOver 2.5✗
- 15 Aug · 7:15Holland Park Hawks3-2Brisbane StrikersAway or Draw✗
- 15 Aug · 7:15St George Willawong1-6SC WanderersOver 2.5✓
- 15 Aug · 7:15Redlands United2-0Logan LightningOver 2.5✗
- 9 Aug · 7:00North Star1-0Robina CityNo pick
About Queensland Premier League
Queensland Premier League is the 13th tier of Australia football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.29 goals per game over 135 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 17% drawn. Brisbane Strikers lead the table on 54 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Queensland Premier League
Every Queensland Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 26 Queensland Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.6% on average and landing 61.6%. Its best-calibrated Queensland Premier League market so far is over 2.5 (63.7% claimed against 66.7% hit over 15 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Queensland Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Queensland Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Queensland Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Queensland Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.7% claimed against 66.7% hit over 15 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Queensland Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Queensland Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.