Capital Territory NPL predictions
Australia · second tier · 11 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Capital Territory NPL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Capital Territory NPL in the Bet Finder.
This week's Capital Territory NPL fixtures
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 64 | 24 | +40 | 52 | |
| 2 |  Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 71 | 26 | +45 | 46 | |
| 3 |  Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 24 | +35 | 44 | |
| 4 |  Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 42 | |
| 5 |  Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 38 | |
| 6 |  Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 23 | |
| 8 |  O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 20 | |
| 9 |  Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 15 | 66 | -51 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 60 | -43 | 7 |
Official Capital Territory NPL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Capital Territory NPL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 12 | 68.6% | 91.7% | +23.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 85.1% | 100.0% | +14.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 61.6% | 100.0% | +38.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 77.8% | 100.0% | +22.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 26 | 66.0% | 76.9% | +10.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 66.8% | 100.0% | +33.2 |
Settled Capital Territory NPL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Capital Territory NPL results
- 5 Sept · 10:00Monaro Panthers1-2Cooma Tigers FCOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 7:00Canberra FC1-0Queanbeyan CityHome or Draw✓
- 29 Aug · 10:00Tuggeranong United0-2Queanbeyan CityNo pick
- 29 Aug · 7:10Cooma Tigers FC4-2Canberra JuventusOver 2.5✓
- 22 Aug · 6:00Tuggeranong United2-0Canberra JuventusNo pick
- 22 Aug · 6:00Queanbeyan City1-0O'Connor KnightsOver 2.5✗
- 22 Aug · 6:00Canberra White Eagles0-5Monaro PanthersAway or Draw✓
- 22 Aug · 6:00Canberra FC4-0Belconnen UnitedHome or Draw✓
- 22 Aug · 5:30Canberra Olympic5-4BrindabellaOver 2.5✓
- 16 Aug · 7:30Canberra Juventus1-2Queanbeyan CityNo pick
About Capital Territory NPL
Capital Territory NPL is the second tier of Australia football with 11 teams. The 2026 season has produced 4.05 goals per game over 114 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 76% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 51% with 6% drawn. Canberra FC lead the table on 52 points from 20 games.
How the model handles Capital Territory NPL
Every Capital Territory NPL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 59 Capital Territory NPL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.3% on average and landing 88.1%. Its best-calibrated Capital Territory NPL market so far is over 2.5 (66.0% claimed against 76.9% hit over 26 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Capital Territory NPL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Capital Territory NPL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Capital Territory NPL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Capital Territory NPL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 66.0% claimed against 76.9% hit over 26 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Capital Territory NPL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Capital Territory NPL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.