Northern NSW NPL predictions
Australia · tenth tier · 12 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Northern NSW NPL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Northern NSW NPL in the Bet Finder.
This week's Northern NSW NPL fixtures
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 23 | +36 | 49 | |
| 2 |  Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 42 | |
| 3 |  Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 41 | |
| 4 |  Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 39 | |
| 5 |  Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 35 | |
| 6 |  Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 36 | +7 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 26 | |
| 8 |  Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 25 | |
| 9 |  Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 24 | |
| 10 |  Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 21 | |
| 11 |  Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 62 | -37 | 14 |
Official Northern NSW NPL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Northern NSW NPL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 66.8% | 66.7% | -0.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 85.3% | 75.0% | -10.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 8 | 59.8% | 62.5% | +2.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 78.9% | 100.0% | +21.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 24 | 66.4% | 45.8% | -20.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 6 | 64.6% | 16.7% | -47.9 |
Settled Northern NSW NPL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Northern NSW NPL results
- 6 Sept · 6:00Broadmeadow Magic0-1MaitlandBTTS✗
- 5 Sept · 5:00Kahibah2-1Newcastle Croatia FCNo pick
- 30 Aug · 7:00Maitland2-1Edgeworth EaglesOver 2.5✓
- 30 Aug · 5:00Wallsend Red Devils2-3Newcastle Croatia FCNo pick
- 29 Aug · 7:00Broadmeadow Magic0-3Weston BearsOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 5:00Kahibah3-0New LambtonNo pick
- 23 Aug · 6:00Maitland0-0Weston BearsOver 2.5✗
- 23 Aug · 4:00Edgeworth Eagles3-2Belmont SwanseaHome Win✓
- 22 Aug · 7:00New Lambton1-2KahibahNo pick
- 22 Aug · 5:00Newcastle Croatia FC6-6Wallsend Red DevilsNo pick
About Northern NSW NPL
Northern NSW NPL is the tenth tier of Australia football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.58 goals per game over 142 matches: both teams scored in 66%, 70% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 20% drawn. Broadmeadow Magic lead the table on 49 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Northern NSW NPL
Every Northern NSW NPL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 55 Northern NSW NPL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.3% on average and landing 56.4%. Its best-calibrated Northern NSW NPL market so far is home win (66.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Northern NSW NPL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Northern NSW NPL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Northern NSW NPL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Northern NSW NPL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 66.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Northern NSW NPL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Northern NSW NPL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.