Queensland NPL predictions
Australia · 11th tier · 12 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Queensland NPL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Queensland NPL in the Bet Finder.
This week's Queensland NPL fixtures
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57 | 22 | +35 | 53 | |
| 2 |  Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 45 | |
| 3 |  Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 39 | |
| 4 |  Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 | |
| 5 |  Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 34 | |
| 6 |  WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 26 | |
| 9 |  Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 22 | |
| 10 |  Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 21 | |
| 11 |  Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 16 |
Official Queensland NPL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Queensland NPL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 70.9% | 33.3% | -37.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 85.5% | 66.7% | -18.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 54.9% | 40.0% | -14.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 76.7% | 60.0% | -16.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 20 | 63.6% | 55.0% | -8.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 5 | 64.6% | 60.0% | -4.6 |
Settled Queensland NPL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Queensland NPL results
- 5 Sept · 8:00Peninsula Power3-2Moreton City ExcelsiorOver 2.5✓
- 30 Aug · 8:00Lions4-1Peninsula PowerOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 8:00Moreton City Excelsior2-0Gold Coast KnightsOver 2.5✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30Gold Coast United2-0Eastern SuburbsBTTS✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30WDSC Wolves0-3Magic UnitedHome or Draw✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30Olympic1-2Rochedale RoversBTTS✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Brisbane Roar II1-2Gold Coast KnightsAway or Draw✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Peninsula Power2-2Brisbane CityOver 2.5✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Moreton City Excelsior0-2LionsAway or Draw✓
- 8 Aug · 9:00Magic United2-1Rochedale RoversNo pick
About Queensland NPL
Queensland NPL is the 11th tier of Australia football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.67 goals per game over 135 matches: both teams scored in 66%, 76% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 15% drawn. Lions lead the table on 53 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Queensland NPL
Every Queensland NPL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 41 Queensland NPL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.4% on average and landing 53.7%. Its best-calibrated Queensland NPL market so far is btts (64.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Queensland NPL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Queensland NPL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Queensland NPL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Queensland NPL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 64.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Queensland NPL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Queensland NPL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.