A-League predictions
Australia · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every A-League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter A-League in the Bet Finder.
This week's A-League fixtures
- 30 Oct · 9:00Brisbane RoarvAucklandNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 4:00Newcastle JetsvWellington PhoenixNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:00Melbourne CityvSydneyNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 8:40MacarthurvWestern Sydney WanderersNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 4:00Melbourne VictoryvCentral Coast MarinersNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 8:00Perth GloryvAdelaide UnitedNo pick yet
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | |
| 2 |  Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | |
| 3 |  Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | |
| 4 |  Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | |
| 5 |  Auckland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | |
| 6 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| 7 |  Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 |  Sydney | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 |  Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | |
| 10 |  Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | |
| 11 |  Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
- Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official A-League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's A-League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 80.3% | 100.0% | +19.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.6% | 33.3% | -27.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 62.8% | 0.0% | -62.8 |
Settled A-League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent A-League results
- 25 Oct · 4:00Sydney2-1Adelaide UnitedBTTS✓
- 25 Oct · 2:00Wellington Phoenix2-0Central Coast MarinersBTTS✗
- 24 Oct · 9:40Melbourne Victory1-1Melbourne CityNo pick
- 24 Oct · 7:00Western Sydney Wanderers5-2AucklandNo pick
- 24 Oct · 5:00Newcastle Jets1-1MacarthurOver 2.5✗
- 23 Oct · 10:00Brisbane Roar2-1Perth GloryNo pick
- 18 Oct · 3:00Wellington Phoenix2-1Melbourne VictoryNo pick
- 17 Oct · 9:40Central Coast Mariners2-2Newcastle JetsOver 2.5✓
- 17 Oct · 7:00Macarthur2-1Perth GloryHome or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 5:00Auckland3-1Melbourne CityNo pick
About A-League
A-League is the top flight of Australia football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 11 matches: both teams scored in 82%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 64% with 36% drawn. Western Sydney Wanderers lead the table on 4 points from 2 games.
How the model handles A-League
Every A-League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 5 A-League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.0% on average and landing 40.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these A-League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the A-League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which A-League market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled A-League tips since 27 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are A-League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter A-League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.