Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid predictions — UEFA Champions League, 5 May

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Arsenal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 home games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Atletico Madrid have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.6 per game.