USL League One predictions
USA · fifth tier · 17 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every USL League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter USL League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's USL League One fixtures
- 12 Sept · 0:00One KnoxvillevNaplesNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 2:00BoisevNY CosmosNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 23:00Forward MadisonvSarasota ParadiseNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 23:00Richmond KickersvChattanooga Red WolvesNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Charlotte IndependencevWestchester SCOver 2.5Moderate
- 13 Sept · 0:00Greenville TriumphvFort WayneNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 1:30Corpus ChristivUnion OmahaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 23:00Portland Hearts of PinevAltaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 16:00Greenville TriumphvCorpus ChristiNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 18:00Union OmahavSpokane VelocityNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 0:00Chattanooga Red WolvesvForward MadisonNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 0:00Westchester SCvRichmond KickersNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 0:30Fort WaynevOne KnoxvilleNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 2:00BoisevCharlotte IndependenceNo pick yet
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Independence | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 33 | +22 | 49 | |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 27 | +16 | 49 | |
| 3 |  Forward Madison | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 24 | +22 | 47 | |
| 4 |  One Knoxville | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 43 | |
| 5 |  Boise | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 41 | |
| 6 |  Spokane Velocity | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 39 | |
| 7 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 38 | |
| 8 |  Fort Wayne | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 33 | |
| 9 |  Alta | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 32 | |
| 10 |  Corpus Christi | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 | |
| 11 |  Naples | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 | |
| 12 |  Sarasota Paradise | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 26 | |
| 13 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 26 | |
| 14 |  Westchester SC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 23 | |
| 15 |  Greenville Triumph | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 23 | |
| 16 |  NY Cosmos | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 22 | |
| 17 |  Richmond Kickers | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 19 |
- Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official USL League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's USL League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 64.7% | 75.0% | +10.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 14 | 61.4% | 50.0% | -11.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled USL League One matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent USL League One results
- 6 Sept · 23:00Portland Hearts of Pine2-1Westchester SCNo pick
- 6 Sept · 3:30Alta1-2One KnoxvilleNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:30Corpus Christi0-2Forward MadisonNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:00Union Omaha2-0Charlotte IndependenceNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:30Sarasota Paradise1-1Spokane VelocityNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:30Fort Wayne2-4NY CosmosNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:30Naples0-1BoiseNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:00Chattanooga Red Wolves3-1Greenville TriumphOver 2.5✓
- 3 Sept · 1:00Forward Madison1-1One KnoxvilleNo pick
- 3 Sept · 0:30NY Cosmos1-2Sarasota ParadiseNo pick
About USL League One
USL League One is the fifth tier of USA football with 17 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.95 goals per game over 203 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 53% with 21% drawn. Charlotte Independence lead the table on 49 points from 24 games.
How the model handles USL League One
Every USL League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 29 USL League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.6% on average and landing 69.0%. Its best-calibrated USL League One market so far is home win (64.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these USL League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the USL League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which USL League One market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled USL League One tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 64.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are USL League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter USL League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.