How are these Major League Soccer predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Major League Soccer table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Major League Soccer market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Major League Soccer tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.3% claimed against 68.6% hit over 35 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Major League Soccer fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Major League Soccer predictions

USA · top flight · table updated 8 Sept

Calibrated probabilities for every Major League Soccer match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Major League Soccer in the Bet Finder.

This week's Major League Soccer fixtures

Major League Soccer table

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	+28	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	+4	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	+14	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	+5	37
5	St. Louis City	23	10	7	6	36	31	+5	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	+6	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	0	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	+1	31
9	San Diego	23	8	6	9	40	34	+6	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	+1	29
11	Minnesota United FC	23	7	8	8	34	37	-3	29
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	-6	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	-5	27
14	Austin	23	6	7	10	29	42	-13	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	-35	15

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	+30	53
2	Inter Miami	23	12	7	4	58	43	+15	43
3	Chicago Fire	22	11	5	6	43	32	+11	38
4	New England Revolution	23	11	4	8	37	29	+8	37
5	Charlotte	23	10	6	7	40	32	+8	36
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	-2	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	+5	29
8	Orlando City SC	23	8	4	11	38	54	-16	28
9	Philadelphia Union	23	7	6	10	36	39	-3	27
10	New York Red Bulls	23	7	6	10	32	46	-14	27
11	Toronto FC	23	5	11	7	36	42	-6	26
12	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	-8	25
13	Columbus Crew	23	6	5	12	34	39	-5	23
14	Atlanta United FC	23	6	4	13	27	40	-13	22
15	CF Montreal	23	5	6	12	30	48	-18	21

Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Official Major League Soccer table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.

This season in numbers

3.21

goals per game (343 matches)

63%

both teams scored

62%

over 2.5 goals

81%

over 1.5 goals

39%

over 3.5 goals

47%

home wins

26%

draws

28%

away wins

The model's Major League Soccer record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	21	63.4%	52.4%	-11.0
Home or draw≥ 80%	27	83.4%	70.4%	-13.0
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	35	61.3%	68.6%	+7.3
BTTS≥ 63%	1	64.6%	100.0%	+35.4

Settled Major League Soccer matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Major League Soccer results

About Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer is the top flight of USA football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 3.21 goals per game over 343 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 26% drawn. The table is published as Western Conference, Eastern Conference.

How the model handles Major League Soccer

Every Major League Soccer fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 84 Major League Soccer tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.0% on average and landing 65.5%. Its best-calibrated Major League Soccer market so far is over 2.5 (61.3% claimed against 68.6% hit over 35 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Major League Soccer predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Major League Soccer table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Major League Soccer market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Major League Soccer tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.3% claimed against 68.6% hit over 35 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Major League Soccer fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Major League Soccer by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.