USL Championship predictions
USA · third tier · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every USL Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter USL Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's USL Championship fixtures
- 12 Sept · 2:30New Mexico UnitedvIndy ElevenNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 3:00Colorado SpringsvSan AntonioNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00BrooklynvMiami FCNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Hartford AthleticvTampa Bay RowdiesNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Louisville CityvEl Paso LocomotiveNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Pittsburgh RiverhoundsvLoudoun UnitedHome or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 0:00Sporting JAXvRhode IslandNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Birmingham LegionvCharleston BatteryNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 3:00Oakland RootsvLexingtonNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 3:00Orange County SCvLas Vegas LightsNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 3:00Phoenix RisingvFC TulsaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 3:00Sacramento RepublicvDetroit CityNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 0:00Indy ElevenvBrooklynNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 23:00Hartford AthleticvSporting JAXNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 1:30Birmingham LegionvNew Mexico UnitedNo pick yet
USL Championship table
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 48 | |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 39 | |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 37 | |
| 4 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 35 | |
| 5 |  Louisville City | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 33 | |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 31 | |
| 7 |  Indy Eleven | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Rhode Island | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Miami FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 | |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 | |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 21 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 18 | |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 16 | |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 14 |
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 40 | |
| 2 |  New Mexico United | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 40 | |
| 3 |  Orange County SC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 36 | |
| 4 |  FC Tulsa | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 36 | |
| 5 |  San Antonio | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 36 | |
| 6 |  Colorado Springs | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 34 | |
| 7 |  Sacramento Republic | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 33 | |
| 8 |  Lexington | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 31 | |
| 9 |  Phoenix Rising | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 30 | |
| 10 |  Las Vegas Lights | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 29 | |
| 11 |  Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 27 | |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 18 |
- Play Offs: 1/8-finals
Official USL Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's USL Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 64.1% | 87.5% | +23.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 82.5% | 80.0% | -2.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.7% | 100.0% | +49.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 75.6% | 100.0% | +24.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 60.2% | 58.3% | -1.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled USL Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent USL Championship results
- 6 Sept · 15:45Miami FC2-2Pittsburgh RiverhoundsNo pick
- 6 Sept · 3:30Las Vegas Lights1-2New Mexico UnitedNo pick
- 6 Sept · 3:00Monterey Bay1-1Phoenix RisingNo pick
- 6 Sept · 2:00Orange County SC1-1Sacramento RepublicNo pick
- 6 Sept · 1:30San Antonio0-0FC TulsaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:30Tampa Bay Rowdies2-0BrooklynHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 0:30Rhode Island1-1Louisville CityOver 2.5✗
- 6 Sept · 0:00Sporting JAX3-2LexingtonOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 0:00Indy Eleven2-2Birmingham LegionNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:00Detroit City1-1Hartford AthleticNo pick
About USL Championship
USL Championship is the third tier of USA football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.71 goals per game over 281 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 49% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 29% drawn. The table is published as USL Championship, USL Championship.
How the model handles USL Championship
Every USL Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 32 USL Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.3% on average and landing 75.0%. Its best-calibrated USL Championship market so far is over 2.5 (60.2% claimed against 58.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these USL Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the USL Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which USL Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled USL Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.2% claimed against 58.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are USL Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter USL Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.