USL Championship predictions
USA · third tier · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every USL Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter USL Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's USL Championship fixtures
No USL Championship fixtures in the next 7 days.
USL Championship table
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | +26 | 61 | |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 35 | +21 | 53 | |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 21 | +13 | 51 | |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 47 | |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 45 | |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 43 | |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 42 | |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 36 | |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 34 | |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 31 | |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 30 | |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 34 | 63 | -29 | 21 | |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 78 | -46 | 14 |
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 34 | +11 | 52 | |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 51 | |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 38 | +10 | 50 | |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57 | 39 | +18 | 48 | |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 38 | +6 | 47 | |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 45 | |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 43 | |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 40 | |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 39 | |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 38 | |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 36 | |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 24 |
- Play Offs: 1/8-finals
Official USL Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's USL Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 20 | 65.2% | 85.0% | +19.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 22 | 83.6% | 86.4% | +2.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 58.4% | 100.0% | +41.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.0% | 100.0% | +23.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 23 | 61.1% | 56.5% | -4.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled USL Championship matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent USL Championship results
- 25 Oct · 2:00Sacramento Republic3-2Oakland RootsNo pick
- 25 Oct · 2:00Phoenix Rising3-3LexingtonNo pick
- 25 Oct · 2:00Monterey Bay2-1Las Vegas LightsNo pick
- 25 Oct · 1:30San Antonio2-1Orange County SCNo pick
- 25 Oct · 1:00El Paso Locomotive0-1New Mexico UnitedNo pick
- 25 Oct · 1:00Colorado Springs2-0FC TulsaNo pick
- 25 Oct · 0:30Tampa Bay Rowdies2-0Sporting JAXOver 2.5✗
- 25 Oct · 0:00Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-1Birmingham LegionNo pick
- 25 Oct · 0:00Louisville City0-0Detroit CityNo pick
- 25 Oct · 0:00Hartford Athletic2-1Rhode IslandNo pick
About USL Championship
USL Championship is the third tier of USA football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.72 goals per game over 375 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 28% drawn. The table is published as USL Championship, USL Championship.
How the model handles USL Championship
Every USL Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 67 USL Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.9% on average and landing 76.1%. Its best-calibrated USL Championship market so far is home or draw (83.6% claimed against 86.4% hit over 22 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these USL Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the USL Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which USL Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled USL Championship tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.6% claimed against 86.4% hit over 22 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are USL Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter USL Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.