Premiership predictions
Scotland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | |
| 3 |  ST Mirren | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 | |
| 4 |  Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 | |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 | |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Dundee Utd | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 |
- Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
- Premiership (Relegation Group)
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 65.9% | 71.4% | +5.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 83.9% | 87.5% | +3.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 57.0% | 66.7% | +9.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 77.7% | 100.0% | +22.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 62.5% | 71.4% | +8.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premiership matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premiership results
- 6 Sept · 15:00ST Johnstone2-1HibernianNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Heart Of Midlothian2-1DundeeHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 20:00ST Mirren1-2CelticAway or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Rangers1-0MotherwellOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 15:00Dundee Utd1-1FalkirkNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Aberdeen0-0KilmarnockHome or Draw✓
- 3 Sept · 19:45Hibernian1-3Heart Of MidlothianNo pick
- 2 Sept · 20:00Falkirk1-2RangersOver 2.5✓
- 2 Sept · 19:45Motherwell3-0Dundee UtdNo pick
- 2 Sept · 19:45Kilmarnock0-1ST MirrenNo pick
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of Scotland football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.71 goals per game over 31 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 58% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 19% drawn. Celtic lead the table on 15 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 28 Premiership tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.5% on average and landing 78.6%. Its best-calibrated Premiership market so far is home or draw (83.9% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premiership tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.