Premiership predictions
Scotland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
- 25 Oct · 12:00HibernianvCelticAway or DrawSolid
- 25 Oct · 14:00MotherwellvHeart Of MidlothianNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45AberdeenvFalkirkNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45CelticvDundee UtdHome or DrawSolid
- 28 Oct · 19:45DundeevKilmarnockNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45Heart Of MidlothianvRangersNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45ST JohnstonevMotherwellNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 19:45ST MirrenvHibernianNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00FalkirkvCelticNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00HibernianvDundeeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00KilmarnockvST JohnstoneNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00MotherwellvST MirrenNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00RangersvAberdeenNo pick yet
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 24 | |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 23 | |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 | |
| 6 |  ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 8 |  ST Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
- Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
- Premiership (Relegation Group)
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 13 | 65.4% | 84.6% | +19.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 84.1% | 92.9% | +8.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 57.7% | 57.1% | -0.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 11 | 61.7% | 54.5% | -7.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premiership matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premiership results
- 24 Oct · 15:00ST Mirren2-1DundeeNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Rangers4-0ST JohnstoneHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Falkirk3-0KilmarnockHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Dundee Utd3-2AberdeenNo pick
- 18 Oct · 15:00Celtic7-1Heart Of MidlothianHome or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 20:00Dundee2-2RangersAway or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00ST Johnstone1-1Dundee UtdNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Kilmarnock3-2MotherwellNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Hibernian1-2FalkirkNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Aberdeen3-1ST MirrenNo pick
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of Scotland football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.83 goals per game over 58 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 59% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 19% drawn. Celtic lead the table on 24 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 52 Premiership tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.4% on average and landing 78.8%. Its best-calibrated Premiership market so far is away win (57.7% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premiership tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 57.7% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.