League One predictions
Scotland · third tier · 10 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
- 12 Sept · 15:00Airdrie UnitedvAlloa AthleticBTTSModerate
- 12 Sept · 15:00East KilbridevPeterheadHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 15:00MontrosevCove RangersNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Queen of the SouthvEast FifeNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Ross CountyvHamilton AcademicalNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45Ross CountyvQueen of the SouthNo pick yet
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hamilton Academical | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | +12 | 16 | |
| 2 |  Ross County | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Alloa Athletic | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Montrose | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | |
| 5 |  East Fife | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 | |
| 6 |  East Kilbride | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Peterhead | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Cove Rangers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Queen of the South | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | |
| 10 |  Airdrie United | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
- Promotion - Championship
- Promotion - League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- Relegation - League Two
Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 80.9% | 66.7% | -14.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.1% | 0.0% | -60.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League One matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 5 Sept · 15:00Queen of the South2-1Airdrie UnitedNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Peterhead0-3MontroseNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00East Kilbride0-1Hamilton AcademicalNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00East Fife2-2Ross CountyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Cove Rangers1-1Alloa AthleticOver 2.5✗
- 29 Aug · 17:30Ross County4-0East KilbrideNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Montrose2-1Queen of the SouthNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Hamilton Academical1-0Cove RangersNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Alloa Athletic1-1PeterheadHome or Draw✓
- 29 Aug · 15:00Airdrie United0-0East FifeOver 2.5✗
About League One
League One is the third tier of Scotland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.38 goals per game over 29 matches: both teams scored in 35%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 28% drawn. Hamilton Academical lead the table on 16 points from 6 games.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 7 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.6% on average and landing 28.6%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled League One tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.