League One predictions
Scotland · third tier · 10 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
- 27 Oct · 19:45Ross CountyvHamilton AcademicalNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Airdrie UnitedvCove RangersNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00East FifevQueen of the SouthNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00East KilbridevRoss CountyNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Hamilton AcademicalvMontroseNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00PeterheadvAlloa AthleticNo pick yet
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 6 | +36 | 31 | |
| 2 |  Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 31 | |
| 3 |  Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 19 | |
| 4 |  East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 | |
| 9 |  East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
- Promotion - Championship
- Promotion - League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- Relegation - League Two
Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 60.9% | 50.0% | -10.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 81.8% | 83.3% | +1.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 61.2% | 28.6% | -32.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled League One matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 24 Oct · 15:00Ross County4-0Airdrie UnitedNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Montrose3-0PeterheadHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Hamilton Academical2-1East FifeNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Alloa Athletic0-1Queen of the SouthNo pick
- 17 Oct · 17:30Airdrie United1-2Hamilton AcademicalNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Queen of the South1-7Ross CountyNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Peterhead2-0Cove RangersNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00East Kilbride1-1MontroseNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00East Fife0-3Alloa AthleticOver 2.5✓
- 10 Oct · 15:00Peterhead0-1Queen of the SouthNo pick
About League One
League One is the third tier of Scotland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.86 goals per game over 58 matches: both teams scored in 45%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 21% drawn. Ross County lead the table on 31 points from 11 games.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 16 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.1% on average and landing 50.0%. Its best-calibrated League One market so far is home or draw (81.8% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League One tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.8% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.