Eredivisie predictions
Netherlands · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 30 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Eredivisie match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eredivisie in the Bet Finder.
This week's Eredivisie fixtures
- 1 Nov · 11:15PEC ZwollevADO Den HaagBTTSSolid
- 1 Nov · 13:30ExcelsiorvTwenteAway or DrawStrong
- 1 Nov · 13:30TelstarvUtrechtBTTSStrong
- 1 Nov · 15:45GroningenvSparta RotterdamBTTSSolid
- 6 Nov · 19:00Willem IIvPEC ZwolleNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 15:30Fortuna SittardvTelstarNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 17:45ADO Den HaagvSparta RotterdamNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 20:00ExcelsiorvGO Ahead EaglesNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 11:15HeerenveenvFeyenoordNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 13:30TwentevAjaxNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 15:45CambuurvPSV EindhovenNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 15:45AZ AlkmaarvGroningenNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 19:00UtrechtvNEC NijmegenNo pick yet
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 24 | |
| 2 |  Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 21 | |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 20 | |
| 4 |  Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 | |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 20 | |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 | |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 15 | |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 14 | |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 | |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 11 | |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 9 | |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 | |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
- Eredivisie (Relegation)
- Relegation - Eerste Divisie
Official Eredivisie table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.
This season in numbers
The model's Eredivisie record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 22 | 69.8% | 54.5% | -15.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 21 | 86.2% | 90.5% | +4.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 15 | 60.7% | 86.7% | +26.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 15 | 79.6% | 93.3% | +13.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 51 | 64.5% | 66.7% | +2.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 18 | 65.0% | 55.6% | -9.4 |
Settled Eredivisie matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Eredivisie results
- 31 Oct · 20:00Cambuur4-0GO Ahead EaglesBTTS✗
- 31 Oct · 20:00Ajax1-0AZ AlkmaarBTTS✗
- 31 Oct · 17:45PSV Eindhoven7-0Willem IIHome or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 17:45Heerenveen1-0NEC NijmegenBTTS✗
- 31 Oct · 15:30Feyenoord1-1Fortuna SittardHome or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 19:00AZ Alkmaar0-2TwenteBTTS✗
- 25 Oct · 15:45Sparta Rotterdam1-2AjaxAway or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 13:30PSV Eindhoven1-1FeyenoordBTTS✓
- 25 Oct · 13:30NEC Nijmegen2-2GroningenNo pick
- 25 Oct · 11:15Fortuna Sittard1-0ExcelsiorBTTS✗
About Eredivisie
Eredivisie is the top flight of Netherlands football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.76 goals per game over 95 matches: both teams scored in 70%, 72% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 34% with 28% drawn. Feyenoord lead the table on 24 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Eredivisie
Every Eredivisie fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 142 Eredivisie tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.8% on average and landing 71.8%. Its best-calibrated Eredivisie market so far is over 2.5 (64.5% claimed against 66.7% hit over 51 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Eredivisie predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Eredivisie table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Eredivisie market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Eredivisie tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 64.5% claimed against 66.7% hit over 51 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Eredivisie fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Eredivisie by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.