How are these Eerste Divisie predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Eerste Divisie table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Eerste Divisie market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Eerste Divisie tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Eerste Divisie fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page.

Eerste Divisie predictions

Netherlands · second tier · table updated 30 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Eerste Divisie match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eerste Divisie in the Bet Finder.

This week's Eerste Divisie fixtures

Eerste Divisie table

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	+23	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	8	1	3	34	20	+14	25
3	Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	+7	25
4	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	+14	25
5	Roda	13	7	4	2	17	12	+5	25
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	23	20	+3	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	+8	19
8	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	-1	17
9	MVV	12	5	2	5	16	27	-11	17
10	Jong AZ	13	5	2	6	32	28	+4	17
11	Jong PSV U21	12	4	4	4	17	19	-2	16
12	Waalwijk	13	3	7	3	22	19	+3	16
13	Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	-3	15
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	-10	15
15	FC OSS	12	4	1	7	19	20	-1	13
16	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	18	29	-11	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	-5	12
18	Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	-15	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	-10	11
20	Jong Utrecht	12	2	1	9	19	31	-12	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	26	14	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20	19	+1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	10	8	+2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	13	20	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19	15	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15	15	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	22	18	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15	17	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	15	15	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14	18	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15	22	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16	19	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13	25	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16	23	-7	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Roda	3	3	0	0	7	4	+3	9
2	Emmen	2	2	0	0	4	1	+3	6
3	Heracles	2	1	1	0	6	2	+4	4
4	VVV Venlo	2	1	1	0	8	6	+2	4
5	NAC Breda	2	1	1	0	3	1	+2	4
6	Den Bosch	2	1	1	0	4	3	+1	4
7	Jong Ajax	2	1	1	0	5	4	+1	4
8	FC Volendam	3	1	1	1	8	5	+3	4
9	De Graafschap	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
10	Jong AZ	3	1	1	1	10	10	0	4
11	Jong PSV U21	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3
12	Dordrecht	2	1	0	1	3	4	-1	3
13	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	3
14	Almere City FC	3	1	0	2	5	6	-1	3
15	Helmond Sport	3	1	0	2	7	9	-2	3
16	Waalwijk	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
17	FC OSS	2	0	1	1	4	5	-1	1
18	MVV	2	0	1	1	3	7	-4	1
19	Jong Utrecht	2	0	0	2	3	8	-5	0
20	FC Eindhoven	3	0	0	3	3	6	-3	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)

Official Eerste Divisie table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.

This season in numbers

3.58

goals per game (125 matches)

70%

both teams scored

68%

over 2.5 goals

86%

over 1.5 goals

44%

over 3.5 goals

50%

home wins

19%

draws

30%

away wins

The model's Eerste Divisie record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	8	59.8%	75.0%	+15.2
Home or draw≥ 80%	6	82.1%	83.3%	+1.2
Away win≥ 50%	3	53.0%	66.7%	+13.7
Away or draw≥ 73%	3	76.0%	100.0%	+24.0
Over 2.5≥ 57%	49	61.1%	65.3%	+4.2
BTTS≥ 63%	20	65.5%	70.0%	+4.5

Settled Eerste Divisie matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Eerste Divisie results

About Eerste Divisie

Eerste Divisie is the second tier of Netherlands football, played across 5 groups. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.58 goals per game over 125 matches: both teams scored in 70%, 68% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 19% drawn. The table is published as Eerste Divisie: Regular season, Eerste Divisie: Period 1, Eerste Divisie: Period 2, Eerste Divisie: Period 3, Eerste Divisie: Period 4.

How the model handles Eerste Divisie

Every Eerste Divisie fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 89 Eerste Divisie tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.6% on average and landing 69.7%. Its best-calibrated Eerste Divisie market so far is home or draw (82.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Eerste Divisie predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Eerste Divisie table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Eerste Divisie market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Eerste Divisie tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Eerste Divisie fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Eerste Divisie by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.