National 1 predictions
France · third tier · 18 teams · table updated 30 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every National 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's National 1 fixtures
- 5 Nov · 19:45ValenciennesvOrleansNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45AubagnevAmiensNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45Bourg-en-bresse 01vLe Puy FootNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45CaenvVersaillesNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45ConcarneauvFleury 91No pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45GobelinsvLa Roche VFNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45RouenvBastiaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45Thionville LusitanosvCannesNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 13:45VillefranchevQuevillyNo pick yet
National 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 20 | |
| 3 |  Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 | |
| 4 |  Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Amiens | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 17 | |
| 7 |  Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 | |
| 8 |  Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 | |
| 9 |  Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 | |
| 10 |  Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 | |
| 11 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 | |
| 12 |  Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 13 | |
| 13 |  Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 | |
| 14 |  Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 | |
| 15 |  Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | |
| 16 |  Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 | |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
- Promotion - Ligue 2
- Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
- Relegation
Official National 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.
This season in numbers
The model's National 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 59.5% | 75.0% | +15.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.3% | 100.0% | +17.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled National 1 matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National 1 results
- 31 Oct · 13:45Versailles4-0AubagneHome or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 13:45Rouen2-1ConcarneauNo pick
- 31 Oct · 13:45Orleans1-1VillefrancheNo pick
- 31 Oct · 13:45Le Puy Foot2-2CaenNo pick
- 31 Oct · 13:45La Roche VF2-0Bourg-en-bresse 01Home or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 13:45Fleury 911-1GobelinsHome or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 13:45Cannes2-1ValenciennesNo pick
- 31 Oct · 13:45Bastia2-0QuevillyNo pick
- 29 Oct · 19:45Amiens1-1Thionville LusitanosNo pick
- 17 Oct · 13:45Villefranche2-1CannesNo pick
About National 1
National 1 is the third tier of France football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.43 goals per game over 99 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 41% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 28% drawn. La Roche VF lead the table on 21 points from 10 games.
How the model handles National 1
Every National 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 12 National 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.7% on average and landing 91.7%. Its best-calibrated National 1 market so far is home or draw (82.3% claimed against 100.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled National 1 tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.3% claimed against 100.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are National 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter National 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.