National 1 predictions
France · third tier · 18 teams · table updated 14 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every National 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's National 1 fixtures
- 17 Sept · 19:45BastiavCannesNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45AmiensvOrleansNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45ConcarneauvCaenNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45Fleury 91vThionville LusitanosNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45La Roche VFvValenciennesHome or DrawModerate
- 19 Sept · 13:45Le Puy FootvVillefrancheNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45GobelinsvBourg-en-bresse 01No pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45RouenvAubagneNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 13:45VersaillesvQuevillyNo pick yet
National 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rouen | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Caen | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | |
| 3 |  La Roche VF | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Cannes | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Concarneau | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Versailles | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Bastia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Gobelins | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Quevilly | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Amiens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Fleury 91 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Le Puy Foot | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Orleans | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Valenciennes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | |
| 16 |  Aubagne | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Villefranche | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
- Promotion - Ligue 2
- Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
- Relegation
Official National 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-14.
This season in numbers
The model's National 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 58.5% | 50.0% | -8.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 82.5% | 100.0% | +17.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled National 1 matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National 1 results
- 12 Sept · 13:45Villefranche0-0La Roche VFNo pick
- 12 Sept · 13:45Valenciennes1-2Fleury 91No pick
- 12 Sept · 13:45Thionville Lusitanos0-4RouenNo pick
- 12 Sept · 13:45Quevilly2-1Le Puy FootDraw✗
- 12 Sept · 13:45Orleans0-4VersaillesNo pick
- 12 Sept · 13:45Caen2-0GobelinsHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 13:45Bourg-en-bresse 010-1BastiaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 13:45Aubagne1-2ConcarneauNo pick
- 10 Sept · 19:45Cannes0-0AmiensNo pick
- 5 Sept · 13:45Versailles0-3CannesNo pick
About National 1
National 1 is the third tier of France football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.31 goals per game over 54 matches: both teams scored in 35%, 37% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 37% with 26% drawn. Rouen lead the table on 14 points from 6 games.
How the model handles National 1
Every National 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 5 National 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.9% on average and landing 80.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled National 1 tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are National 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.