Ligue 1 predictions
France · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Ligue 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ligue 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ligue 1 fixtures
- 26 Oct · 19:30Paris Saint GermainvLyonOver 2.5Moderate
- 30 Oct · 18:00Le HavrevParis Saint GermainNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 20:05LillevLensNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:15NicevRennesNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:45LorientvStade Brestois 29No pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:45LyonvAngersNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:45Estac TroyesvLe MansNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 14:00StrasbourgvAuxerreNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:15Paris FCvMonacoNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 19:45MarseillevToulouseNo pick yet
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 | |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
- Champions League league stage
- Qualifying
- Europa League league stage
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official Ligue 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Ligue 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 61.9% | 50.0% | -11.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.5% | 62.5% | -20.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 55.9% | 71.4% | +15.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 78.2% | 100.0% | +21.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 60.9% | 83.3% | +22.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ligue 1 matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ligue 1 results
- 25 Oct · 16:15Toulouse0-0Estac TroyesHome or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 16:15Rennes3-0StrasbourgOver 2.5✓
- 25 Oct · 16:15Marseille4-3Le HavreHome or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 16:15Auxerre1-1Le MansNo pick
- 25 Oct · 16:15Angers0-0LorientNo pick
- 25 Oct · 14:00Monaco1-1LilleNo pick
- 24 Oct · 19:45Lens2-1Paris FCNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Stade Brestois 291-2NiceNo pick
- 18 Oct · 19:45Lyon2-1NiceOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 16:15Paris FC4-3RennesNo pick
About Ligue 1
Ligue 1 is the top flight of France football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.99 goals per game over 71 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 27% drawn. Lyon lead the table on 14 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Ligue 1
Every Ligue 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 42 Ligue 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 73.8%. Its best-calibrated Ligue 1 market so far is home win (61.9% claimed against 50.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ligue 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ligue 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ligue 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ligue 1 tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.9% claimed against 50.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ligue 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ligue 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.