How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera Nacional tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.8% claimed against 88.6% hit over 35 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera Nacional predictions

Argentina · second tier · table updated 24 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Nacional in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera Nacional fixtures

Primera Nacional table

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	38	31	+7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	48	32	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	17	7	10	51	36	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	51	31	+20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	43	27	+16	57
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	30	31	-1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	28	24	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	13	9	12	34	33	+1	48
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	36	36	0	43
10	Los Andes	34	9	14	11	26	25	+1	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	10	14	30	40	-10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	31	39	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	25	32	-7	38
14	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	29	41	-12	38
15	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	23	31	-8	37
16	All Boys	34	6	17	11	19	29	-10	35
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	25	35	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	27	41	-14	32

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	34	16	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	41	28	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	51	42	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	40	33	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	37	31	+6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	40	29	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	36	32	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	40	33	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	36	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	39	37	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	29	35	-6	46
12	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	32	30	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	11	9	15	32	42	-10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	27	38	-11	40
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	29	33	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	26	35	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	24	33	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	25	57	-32	26

Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation

Official Primera Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.

This season in numbers

1.96

goals per game (618 matches)

40%

both teams scored

33%

over 2.5 goals

60%

over 1.5 goals

13%

over 3.5 goals

47%

home wins

32%

draws

22%

away wins

The model's Primera Nacional record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	6	59.6%	66.7%	+7.1
Home or draw≥ 80%	35	81.8%	88.6%	+6.8
Away win≥ 50%	1	54.9%	100.0%	+45.1
Away or draw≥ 73%	1	79.4%	100.0%	+20.6
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera Nacional matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera Nacional results

About Primera Nacional

Primera Nacional is the second tier of Argentina football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 1.96 goals per game over 618 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 33% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 32% drawn. The table is published as Group 1, Group 2.

How the model handles Primera Nacional

Every Primera Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 43 Primera Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 78.0% on average and landing 86.1%. Its best-calibrated Primera Nacional market so far is home or draw (81.8% claimed against 88.6% hit over 35 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera Nacional tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.8% claimed against 88.6% hit over 35 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.