How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.9% claimed against 85.7% hit over 21 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera Nacional predictions

Argentina · second tier · table updated 9 Sept

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Nacional in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera Nacional fixtures

Primera Nacional table

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	28	16	6	6	34	25	+9	54
2	Deportivo Moron	28	15	7	6	45	26	+19	52
3	Deportivo Madryn	28	12	10	6	41	26	+15	46
4	Godoy Cruz	28	13	7	8	34	25	+9	46
5	Colon Santa Fe	28	12	9	7	35	23	+12	45
6	Almirante Brown	28	12	9	7	23	16	+7	45
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	28	9	11	8	24	26	-2	38
8	Los Andes	28	8	12	8	21	16	+5	36
9	CA Estudiantes	28	9	9	10	25	25	0	36
10	Racing Cordoba	28	9	8	11	25	32	-7	35
11	Chaco For Ever	28	8	8	12	26	29	-3	32
12	Atletico Mitre	28	6	13	9	27	35	-8	31
13	All Boys	28	6	13	9	16	24	-8	31
14	Defensores De Belgrano	28	6	12	10	20	25	-5	30
15	Central Norte	28	6	12	10	19	27	-8	30
16	San Miguel	28	6	11	11	22	32	-10	29
17	San Telmo	28	6	10	12	22	33	-11	28
18	Acassuso	28	5	8	15	19	33	-14	23

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	27	14	9	4	31	15	+16	51
2	Temperley	28	13	10	5	33	23	+10	49
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	28	14	7	7	42	34	+8	49
4	Atlanta	28	14	3	11	32	28	+4	45
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	28	12	8	8	31	26	+5	44
6	Midland	28	11	8	9	31	25	+6	41
7	San Martin S.J.	27	11	8	8	31	26	+5	41
8	Deportivo Maipu	28	11	6	11	34	28	+6	39
9	Atletico DE Rafaela	28	10	9	9	20	22	-2	39
10	Colegiales	28	10	7	11	28	28	0	37
11	San Martin Tucuman	28	8	12	8	27	26	+1	36
12	Almagro	28	9	7	12	23	31	-8	34
13	Agropecuario	28	8	9	11	25	31	-6	33
14	Quilmes	28	8	8	12	27	24	+3	32
15	Nueva Chicago	28	8	8	12	21	27	-6	32
16	Patronato	28	5	14	9	23	30	-7	29
17	Chacarita Juniors	28	7	6	15	19	30	-11	27
18	Club Atlético Güemes	28	5	8	15	23	47	-24	23

Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation

Official Primera Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.

This season in numbers

1.95

goals per game (503 matches)

40%

both teams scored

33%

over 2.5 goals

60%

over 1.5 goals

13%

over 3.5 goals

47%

home wins

32%

draws

21%

away wins

The model's Primera Nacional record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	5	59.6%	80.0%	+20.4
Home or draw≥ 80%	21	81.9%	85.7%	+3.8
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera Nacional matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera Nacional results

About Primera Nacional

Primera Nacional is the second tier of Argentina football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 1.95 goals per game over 503 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 33% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 32% drawn. The table is published as Group 1, Group 2.

How the model handles Primera Nacional

Every Primera Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 26 Primera Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 77.6% on average and landing 84.6%. Its best-calibrated Primera Nacional market so far is home or draw (81.9% claimed against 85.7% hit over 21 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.9% claimed against 85.7% hit over 21 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.