Charlton vs Chelsea predictions — FA Cup, 10 Jan

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Charlton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 home games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.6 per game. Chelsea have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away games, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 per game.