Challenge League predictions
Switzerland · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Challenge League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Challenge League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Challenge League fixtures
- 25 Oct · 15:30Yverdon SportvSC KriensNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 18:30Stade Lausanne-OuchyvYverdon SportNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 18:30RapperswilvStade NyonnaisNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 19:15Étoile CarougevSC KriensNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 19:15Neuchatel Xamax FCvFC AarauNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00FC WIL 1900vFC WinterthurNo pick yet
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 25 | |
| 2 |  FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 21 | |
| 3 |  Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 | |
| 4 |  Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 16 | |
| 5 |  SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 | |
| 6 |  FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 | |
| 9 |  FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 5 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Challenge League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Challenge League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 59.9% | 33.3% | -26.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 81.4% | 60.0% | -21.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 54.7% | 0.0% | -54.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 75.7% | 0.0% | -75.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 27 | 63.6% | 66.7% | +3.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 9 | 65.2% | 44.4% | -20.8 |
Settled Challenge League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Challenge League results
- 24 Oct · 17:00FC Aarau1-2Étoile CarougeOver 2.5✓
- 23 Oct · 19:15FC Winterthur4-0Stade NyonnaisBTTS✗
- 23 Oct · 18:30FC WIL 19002-2RapperswilBTTS✓
- 23 Oct · 18:30Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0-0Neuchatel Xamax FCNo pick
- 9 Oct · 19:15Stade Nyonnais2-1FC AarauBTTS✓
- 9 Oct · 19:15Étoile Carouge0-2Yverdon SportNo pick
- 9 Oct · 18:30Neuchatel Xamax FC3-0FC WinterthurBTTS✗
- 9 Oct · 18:30Rapperswil0-3Stade Lausanne-OuchyNo pick
- 9 Oct · 18:30SC Kriens1-1FC WIL 1900No pick
- 20 Sept · 13:00Yverdon Sport0-0Stade Lausanne-OuchyNo pick
About Challenge League
Challenge League is the second tier of Switzerland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.96 goals per game over 54 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 28% drawn. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy lead the table on 25 points from 11 games.
How the model handles Challenge League
Every Challenge League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 49 Challenge League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.3% on average and landing 55.1%. Its best-calibrated Challenge League market so far is over 2.5 (63.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 27 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Challenge League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Challenge League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Challenge League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Challenge League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 27 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Challenge League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Challenge League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.