Challenge League predictions
Switzerland · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Challenge League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Challenge League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Challenge League fixtures
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Yverdon Sport | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 | |
| 3 |  FC Winterthur | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 12 | |
| 4 |  FC Aarau | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 | |
| 5 |  SC Kriens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Étoile Carouge | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Neuchatel Xamax FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 | |
| 8 |  FC WIL 1900 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Rapperswil | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Stade Nyonnais | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Challenge League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Challenge League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 60.7% | 25.0% | -35.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 81.6% | 75.0% | -6.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 19 | 63.1% | 52.6% | -10.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 64.6% | 50.0% | -14.6 |
Settled Challenge League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Challenge League results
- 6 Sept · 13:00Yverdon Sport4-1Stade NyonnaisOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:15FC Winterthur4-0Neuchatel Xamax FCNo pick
- 4 Sept · 19:15Étoile Carouge1-1FC WIL 1900Over 2.5✗
- 4 Sept · 18:30SC Kriens0-2Stade Lausanne-OuchyNo pick
- 4 Sept · 18:30FC Aarau3-2RapperswilOver 2.5✓
- 1 Sept · 18:30Neuchatel Xamax FC1-2Yverdon SportNo pick
- 1 Sept · 18:30Stade Nyonnais2-2FC WinterthurOver 2.5✓
- 1 Sept · 18:30Rapperswil1-1SC KriensOver 2.5✗
- 1 Sept · 18:30Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0Étoile CarougeNo pick
- 31 Aug · 19:15FC WIL 19002-2FC AarauOver 2.5✓
About Challenge League
Challenge League is the second tier of Switzerland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 35 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 29% drawn. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy lead the table on 17 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Challenge League
Every Challenge League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 31 Challenge League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.4% on average and landing 51.6%. Its best-calibrated Challenge League market so far is over 2.5 (63.1% claimed against 52.6% hit over 19 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Challenge League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Challenge League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Challenge League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Challenge League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.1% claimed against 52.6% hit over 19 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Challenge League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Challenge League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.