La Liga predictions
Spain · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every La Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter La Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's La Liga fixtures
- 11 Sept · 20:00SevillavValenciaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 13:00Racing SantandervAlavesNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:15OsasunavEspanyolNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:30Athletic ClubvElcheHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 20:00Real MadridvRayo VallecanoHome or DrawStrong
- 13 Sept · 13:00Celta VigovMalagaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 15:15LevantevBarcelonaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 17:30GetafevDeportivo La CorunaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 20:00Real SociedadvAtletico MadridNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 20:00VillarrealvReal BetisNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 18:00Rayo VallecanovEspanyolNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:00AlavesvValenciaNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 20:30ElchevReal MadridNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 18:00Atletico MadridvOsasunaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 18:00Deportivo La CorunavSevillaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 20:30BarcelonavRacing SantanderNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 20:30LevantevAthletic ClubNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 18:00Real BetisvGetafeNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 20:30MalagavVillarrealNo pick yet
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Alaves | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 10 | |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 | |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Levante | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Racing Santander | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Celta Vigo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 | |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 2 | |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 | |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- ECL Playoffs
- Relegation
Official La Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's La Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 69.9% | 100.0% | +30.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 85.9% | 100.0% | +14.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 59.8% | 100.0% | +40.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 81.1% | 100.0% | +18.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.9% | 66.7% | +5.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled La Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent La Liga results
- 7 Sept · 20:30Elche2-3Real SociedadNo pick
- 7 Sept · 18:00Getafe1-1Celta VigoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00Espanyol1-1SevillaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 17:30Malaga0-0LevanteNo pick
- 6 Sept · 17:30Alaves5-2OsasunaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:15Valencia0-5BarcelonaAway or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 20:00Villarreal2-3Deportivo La CorunaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:30Rayo Vallecano3-2Racing SantanderNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:15Athletic Club3-0Atletico MadridNo pick
- 4 Sept · 20:00Real Betis1-0Real MadridNo pick
About La Liga
La Liga is the top flight of Spain football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 41 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 56% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 27% drawn. Barcelona lead the table on 12 points from 4 games.
How the model handles La Liga
Every La Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 20 La Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.5% on average and landing 95.0%. Its best-calibrated La Liga market so far is home or draw (85.9% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these La Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the La Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which La Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled La Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.9% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are La Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter La Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.