La Liga predictions
Spain · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every La Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter La Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's La Liga fixtures
- 25 Oct · 17:30Real SociedadvLevanteNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 20:00BarcelonavReal MadridNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 20:00SevillavOsasunaNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 20:00VillarrealvEspanyolNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00LevantevAtletico MadridNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:15Rayo VallecanovCelta VigoNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:30Real BetisvMalagaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 20:00BarcelonavAlavesNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00GetafevSevillaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 15:15Racing SantandervReal MadridNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:30ElchevValenciaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 20:00Athletic ClubvReal SociedadNo pick yet
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 27 | |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 25 | |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 21 | |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 19 | |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 | |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 | |
| 7 |  Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 10 | |
| 14 |  Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | |
| 16 |  Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 9 | |
| 17 |  Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 | |
| 18 |  Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 | |
| 19 |  Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 | |
| 20 |  Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation - LaLiga2
Official La Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's La Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 18 | 66.5% | 83.3% | +16.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 20 | 85.3% | 95.0% | +9.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 59.0% | 100.0% | +41.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 80.7% | 100.0% | +19.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 9 | 61.5% | 66.7% | +5.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled La Liga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent La Liga results
- 25 Oct · 15:15Celta Vigo0-0Real BetisNo pick
- 25 Oct · 13:00Athletic Club4-0GetafeHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 20:00Atletico Madrid1-0Deportivo La CorunaHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 17:30Valencia1-2VillarrealNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:15Racing Santander2-1EspanyolNo pick
- 24 Oct · 13:00Rayo Vallecano0-3ElcheNo pick
- 23 Oct · 20:00Alaves1-1MalagaNo pick
- 21 Oct · 19:00Levante3-1Athletic ClubNo pick
- 19 Oct · 20:00Getafe1-1Rayo VallecanoDraw✓
- 18 Oct · 20:00Real Madrid4-1SevillaHome or Draw✓
About La Liga
La Liga is the top flight of Spain football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.02 goals per game over 96 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 56% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 28% drawn. Barcelona lead the table on 27 points from 9 games.
How the model handles La Liga
Every La Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 59 La Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.8% on average and landing 88.1%. Its best-calibrated La Liga market so far is over 2.5 (61.5% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these La Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the La Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which La Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled La Liga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.5% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are La Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter La Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.