Liga MX predictions
Mexico · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga MX match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga MX in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga MX fixtures
- 19 Sept · 2:00PueblavAtlante FCNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 4:00FC JuarezvTigres UANLAway or DrawModerate
- 20 Sept · 0:00AtlasvU.N.A.M. - PumasNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 0:00Atletico San LuisvNecaxaNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 2:10MonterreyvCruz AzulNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 4:15Club AmericavGuadalajara ChivasNo pick yet
- 21 Sept · 1:00CF PachucavClub TijuanaNo pick yet
- 21 Sept · 1:00TolucavSantos LagunaNo pick yet
- 21 Sept · 3:05Club QueretarovLeonNo pick yet
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 | |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Puebla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 | |
| 10 |  CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 | |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Atlante FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 |
- Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Liga MX table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga MX record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 13 | 63.3% | 61.5% | -1.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 18 | 83.3% | 77.8% | -5.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 61.9% | 100.0% | +38.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 83.4% | 100.0% | +16.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 60.2% | 66.7% | +6.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga MX matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga MX results
- 16 Sept · 2:00Puebla0-1TolucaNo pick
- 15 Sept · 2:00Leon2-0Atletico San LuisNo pick
- 14 Sept · 2:07Guadalajara Chivas3-0U.N.A.M. - PumasNo pick
- 14 Sept · 2:00Santos Laguna2-1FC JuarezNo pick
- 13 Sept · 4:15Cruz Azul4-3Club AmericaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 2:10Monterrey0-0Tigres UANLNo pick
- 13 Sept · 0:05Toluca5-2AtlasHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 4:10Club Tijuana0-1Club QueretaroNo pick
- 12 Sept · 4:00Atlante FC0-3CF PachucaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 2:00Necaxa0-1PueblaNo pick
About Liga MX
Liga MX is the top flight of Mexico football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.81 goals per game over 70 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 20% drawn. Toluca lead the table on 19 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Liga MX
Every Liga MX fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 39 Liga MX tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.5% on average and landing 71.8%. Its best-calibrated Liga MX market so far is home win (63.3% claimed against 61.5% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga MX predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga MX table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga MX market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga MX tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 63.3% claimed against 61.5% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga MX fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga MX by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.