Liga MX predictions
Mexico · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 30 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga MX match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga MX in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga MX fixtures
- 1 Nov · 1:05MonterreyvClub TijuanaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 1:07Guadalajara ChivasvAtlante FCHome or DrawSolid
- 1 Nov · 3:10Club AmericavTolucaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 23:00Santos LagunavNecaxaNo pick yet
- 2 Nov · 1:10Cruz AzulvLeonBTTSModerate
- 7 Nov · 1:00Atletico San LuisvFC JuarezNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 1:00NecaxavClub TijuanaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 3:00Atlante FCvSantos LagunaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 23:00AtlasvCF PachucaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 23:00Tigres UANLvCruz AzulNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 1:00TolucavMonterreyNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 3:00U.N.A.M. - PumasvClub AmericaNo pick yet
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 28 | |
| 2 |  Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 | |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 26 | |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 26 | |
| 5 |  Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 23 | |
| 6 |  Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 22 | |
| 7 |  Club Tijuana | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 21 | |
| 8 |  Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 | |
| 9 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 | |
| 10 |  Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 | |
| 11 |  Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 | |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 | |
| 13 |  CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 16 | |
| 14 |  Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 | |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 | |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 | |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 10 | |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 8 |
- Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Liga MX table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga MX record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 19 | 63.8% | 57.9% | -5.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 24 | 83.9% | 83.3% | -0.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 55.9% | 100.0% | +44.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 79.0% | 100.0% | +21.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 60.0% | 58.3% | -1.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga MX matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga MX results
- 31 Oct · 23:00CF Pachuca3-0Tigres UANLNo pick
- 31 Oct · 3:00Puebla1-2U.N.A.M. - PumasNo pick
- 31 Oct · 1:00FC Juarez3-1Club QueretaroNo pick
- 31 Oct · 1:00Atletico San Luis0-1AtlasNo pick
- 29 Oct · 3:00Club America1-1Club TijuanaHome or Draw✓
- 26 Oct · 3:00Club Tijuana4-1Santos LagunaNo pick
- 26 Oct · 1:05Club America1-2CF PachucaNo pick
- 26 Oct · 1:00Club Queretaro1-3Cruz AzulAway or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 23:00Atlas4-3PueblaNo pick
- 25 Oct · 3:10U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-1Tigres UANLNo pick
About Liga MX
Liga MX is the top flight of Mexico football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.99 goals per game over 129 matches: both teams scored in 61%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 37% with 26% drawn. Club America lead the table on 28 points from 14 games.
How the model handles Liga MX
Every Liga MX fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 61 Liga MX tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.3% on average and landing 72.1%. Its best-calibrated Liga MX market so far is home or draw (83.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 24 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga MX predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga MX table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga MX market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga MX tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 24 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga MX fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Liga MX by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.