England vs Japan predictions — Friendlies, 31 Mar

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. England have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 home games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Japan have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away games, scoring 0.4 and conceding 0.6 per game.