Premier League predictions
Wales · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:45Airbus UKvThe New SaintsOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 19:45Ammanford AFCvCaernarfon TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 19:45Barry TownvLlandudnoNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45Cambrian & ClydachvHolywellOver 2.5Solid
- 11 Sept · 19:45Flint Town UnitedvCardiff METNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45Haverfordwest County AFCvBriton FerryOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 19:45TrefelinvPenybontNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:30Colwyn BayvGAP Connah S Quay FCNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45Barry TownvAmmanford AFCNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45GAP Connah S Quay FCvAirbus UKNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45HolywellvColwyn BayNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45LlandudnovCaernarfon TownNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45PenybontvBriton FerryNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45The New SaintsvFlint Town UnitedNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45TrefelinvCambrian & ClydachNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The New Saints | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Barry Town | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 | |
| 3 |  GAP Connah S Quay FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Caernarfon Town | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Llandudno | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Penybont | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Cardiff MET | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Airbus UK | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Colwyn Bay | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Briton Ferry | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Haverfordwest County AFC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Ammanford AFC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 | |
| 14 |  Trefelin | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 2 | |
| 15 |  Flint Town United | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Holywell | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 1 |
- Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
- Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
- Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 63.4% | 70.0% | +6.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.7% | 87.5% | +4.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 58.8% | 33.3% | -25.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 79.4% | 60.0% | -19.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 28 | 62.0% | 50.0% | -12.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 64.6% | 75.0% | +10.4 |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 5 Sept · 17:15The New Saints1-0Barry TownHome Win✓
- 5 Sept · 12:30Penybont1-0Colwyn BayOver 2.5✗
- 4 Sept · 19:45Llandudno2-0Ammanford AFCOver 2.5✗
- 4 Sept · 19:45Holywell1-1TrefelinBTTS✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1Haverfordwest County AFCHome Win✗
- 4 Sept · 19:45Cardiff MET2-2Cambrian & ClydachNo pick
- 4 Sept · 19:45Caernarfon Town3-0Flint Town UnitedOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45Briton Ferry0-2Airbus UKOver 2.5✗
- 31 Aug · 17:15Colwyn Bay2-0LlandudnoOver 2.5✗
- 31 Aug · 15:00Caernarfon Town2-3The New SaintsAway or Draw✓
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Wales football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.14 goals per game over 56 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 16% drawn. The New Saints lead the table on 19 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 61 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.2% on average and landing 59.0%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is home or draw (82.7% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.7% claimed against 87.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.